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研究生： Elok Pitaloka
Elok Pitaloka
論文名稱： 單期訂購問題中的決策偏誤：比較管理者和學生之差異以及決策支持系統的修正效果
Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem: on the Comparison of Managers and Students as Newsvendors with Decision Support System as Debiasing Strategy
指導教授： 林希偉
Shi-Woei Lin
口試委員: 林久翔
Chiu-Hsiang Lin
楊朝龍
Chao-Lung Yang
林希偉
Shi-Woei Lin
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年： 2019
畢業學年度： 107
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 97
中文關鍵詞： 行為作業 、單期訂購模型 、決策偏誤 、決策支援系統（DSS） 、報童問題
外文關鍵詞： Newsvendor Inventory Decisions
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  •  上一筆

    • Master’s Thesis Recommendation Form ii Qualification Form by Master’s Degree Examination Committee iii 摘要 iv ABSTRACT v ACKNOWLEDGMENT iii TABLE OF CONTENTS iv LIST OF FIGURES vii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF NOTATIONS AND ABBREVIATIONS xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Background 1 1.2. Research Questions 3 1.3. Objectives 4 1.4. Research Benefit 4 1.5. Limitations and Assumptions 5 1.6. Organization of the Thesis 5 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 7 2.1. The Experimental Studies of the Newsvendor Problem 7 2.2. The Strategy of Improving Decision in Newsvendor Problem 8 2.2.1. Separate Forecasting Task from The Inventory Decision Task 8 2.2.2. Change Managerial Incentives 11 2.2.3. Design Employee Training Program 11 2.2.4. Control the Availability of Information 11 2.2.5. Design Decision Support System 12 2.3. Decision Support System in Inventory Planning 13 2.4. Research Position 15 2.4.1. Experimental Studies to Observe Order Decision 15 2.4.2. Debiasing Strategy to Improve Order Decision 16 CHAPTER 3 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 18 3.1. Behavioral Theories and Biases in Newsvendor Decision Making 18 3.2. The Basic Model of Newsvendor Problem 21 3.3. The Extended Model of Newsvendor Problem 22 3.3.1. Penalty Cost for Excess Inventory (Overage Condition) 23 3.3.2. Penalty Cost for Stock-out (Underage Condition) 24 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 27 4.1. Research Hypotheses 27 4.1.1. Subjects’ Order Quantity 27 4.1.2. Order Behavior Comparison between Managers and Students 28 4.1.3. Effect of DSS to Subjects’ Order Decision 28 4.2. Research Design 28 4.2.1. Experimental Design 28 4.2.2. Research Subjects 30 4.2.3. Experimental Setup and Details 31 4.3. Research Tools 33 4.4. Research Procedures 34 4.4.1. The Procedure for Testing the 1st Hypothesis 39 4.4.2. The Procedure for Testing the 2nd Hypothesis 41 4.4.3. The Procedure for Testing the 3rd Hypothesis 43 CHAPTER 5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 46 5.1. Analysis of Managers’ Order Behavior 46 5.1.1. High-Profit Scenario 46 5.1.2. Low-Profit Scenario 48 5.1.3. Summary and Discussion of Managers’ Order Decision 49 5.2. Analysis of Students’ Order Behavior 50 5.2.1. High-Profit Scenario 50 5.2.2. Low-Profit Scenario 52 5.2.3. Summary and Discussion of Students’ Order Decision 54 5.3. Performance Comparison between Manager and Student as Newsvendor 54 5.3.1. Order Quantity and Order Behavior Comparison 54 5.3.2. Frequency and Magnitude of Adjustment Comparison 56 5.3.3. Profit Comparison 57 5.3.4. Summary of Performance Comparison 61 5.4. Decision Support System Design for Experiment 2 61 5.4.1. The Availability of Information 62 5.4.2. System Interface for Experiment 2 64 5.5. Analysis of Order Behavior with DSS Presentation (Experimental Evidence of DSS Implementation) 65 5.5.1. High-Profit Scenario 65 5.5.2. Low-Profit Scenario 66 5.5.3. Summary and Discussion of Order Decision Observation 67 5.6. Performance Comparison Before and After DSS implementation 68 5.6.1. Frequency of Adjustment 68 5.6.2. Order Variance Comparison 69 5.6.3. Deviation from Optimal Order Quantity 69 5.6.4. Profit Comparison 70 5.6.5. Summary of Performance Comparison & Managerial Implication 71 5.7. Decision Support System Prototyping for Future Use 73 5.7.1. System Architecture 74 5.7.2. System Interface 75 5.7.3. Numerical Example 78 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 80 6.1. Conclusions 80 6.2. Managerial Implication 80 6.3. Recommendations for Future Research 81 REFERENCES 82

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