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研究生： 李鈺
Yu Lee
論文名稱： 資訊受限競爭型報童問題之訂購行為
Behavioral Ordering in Competing Newsvendor Problem with Censored Information
指導教授： 林希偉
Shi-Woei Lin
口試委員: 王孔正
Kung-Jeng Wang
黃文曄
Wen-Yeh Huang
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年： 2022
畢業學年度： 110
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 64
中文關鍵詞： 行為決策理論 、存貨決策 、競爭型報童問題 、資訊受限 、決策偏誤
外文關鍵詞： behavioral operation, inventory decision, competitive newsvendor, censored information, decision bias
相關次數： 點閱：277  下載：4 
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    • 報童問題（即單期存貨模型）為存貨管理中的經典模型，學者已發展出完整之分析解，但近年的實驗與實證研究指出報童問題中的實際訂購行為往往存在決策偏誤。過去針對報童問題的行為決策研究已從單一零售商的獨占型市場擴展到存在競爭廠商的寡占型市場競爭模式，以符合現實世界的市場型態，然研究中多提供完整需求資訊給受試者，此實驗設計與真實的市場中決策情境並不一致。因此本研究旨在探討在資訊受限（censored information）情境下 （即僅提決策者本身的銷售量或者競爭者的銷售量時），決策者在面對競爭型報童問題時的訂購行為差異，並觀察其行為偏誤。研究指出，在資訊受限的情境下，訂購量顯著低於提供完整需求資訊時，且決策者出現錨定前期銷售量（anchoring on previous sales quantity）之訂購決策行為及決策偏誤。當在資訊受限的實驗中額外提供對手銷售資訊以探討是否存在追逐對手銷售量（chasing competitor’s sales quantity）之行為時，研究結果則顯示決策者追逐競爭者銷售量的行為並不顯著。我們研究指出在競爭型報童問題的決策情境中為管理者提供決策支持的重要性。

    Behavioral decision making research on the newsvendor problem has been extended from the monopoly market setting (i.e., including one single retailer) to dual market setting (i.e., allowing two retailers to compete in the market), for better reflecting the real-world situation. However, most of experimental studies in the competing newsvendor problem provide real demand information to the subjects in the experiment setting, even though this information is generally not available for decision makers in the real market. This study aims to investigate the decision maker’s ordering behavior and biases in a competing newsvendor problem when the demand information is censored (i.e., only sales information or sales information of the competitors are available). Results show that, comparing to the order quantity under full information, the order quantity is significantly lower under censored information. Subjects exhibited the behavior of anchoring on the previous sales quantity and made insufficient adjustment for their order. However, results show that the subjects will not chasing the competitor’s sales quantity even when that information is provided. Our research indicates the importance of providing decision support for managers in competitive newsvendor environments.

    摘要 i ABSTRACT ii Tabe of Contents iii List of Figures v List of Tables vi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Research Questions 4 1.3 Objectives 5 1.4 Organization of The Thesis 5 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 6 2.1 Experimental Studies of Single Newsvendor Problem 6 2.1.1 Decision Biases in Single Newsvendor Problem 6 2.1.2 Newsvendor Decisions Under Censored Information 9 2.2 Experimental Studies of Duopolistic Newsvendor Problem 14 2.2.1 The Duopoly Newsvendor Model 14 2.2.2 Decision Bias 16 2.2.3 Experimental Design 18 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 22 3.1 Research Design 22 3.1.1 Experimental Design 22 3.1.2 Research Subjects 24 3.1.3 Other Experimental Setup 25 3.1.4 Research Tools and Statistical Methods 26 3.2 Research Hypotheses 28 3.2.1 Average Oder Quantity Under Censored Information 28 3.2.2 Decision Bias in the Censored Information Treatment 29 3.2.3 The Average Order Quantity When Competitor’s Sales Quantity Is Available 30 3.3 Research Procedures 31 3.3.1 The Procedure for Testing the 2nd Hypothesis 35 3.3.2 The Procedure for Testing the 3rd Hypothesis 36 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 38 4.1 Key Descriptive Statistics and the PTC Effect 38 4.1.1 High Profit Condition 38 4.1.2 Low Profit Condition 40 4.2 Examining The First Hypothesis 42 4.3 Examining The Second Hypothesis 43 4.4 Examining The Third Hypothesis 44 4.5 Summary of Laboratory Experiment 46 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 49 5.1 Conclusions 49 5.2 Managerial Implication 50 5.3 Limitations of the Study and Directions for Future Research 50 Reference 52 Appendix Experimental Instructions 55

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