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研究生: 邱薏璉
I-Lien Chiu
論文名稱: 資訊科技產業關聯性之探討─以台灣及美國為例
The Relationship Analysis of Technology Industry - Evidence from Taiwan and U.S.A
指導教授: 謝劍平
Joseph C.P. Shieh
口試委員: 梁瓊如
Chiung-Ju Liang
陳俊男
Chun-Nan Chen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 50
中文關鍵詞: 滾動相關係數單根檢定共整合檢定Granger因果檢定
外文關鍵詞: Rolling Correlation, Co-integration Test
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  • 台灣科技產業於1949年開始崛起,規模日漸成長,也由過往提供硬體產品蛻變為軟體硬體相重之供應模式。近年來,也逐漸以代工為主轉變為研發與創新兼具國家,期許在中國市場及東南亞市場崛起後,依舊能有處於國際間不敗之地之能力。台灣也為出口導向之國家,其中出口產品中又以電機設備及零件為主要大宗,且比重隨年上漲。因此本研究欲探討台灣資訊科技產業市場地位,並探討台灣科技產業與美國科技產業間關聯性。
    本論文以台灣資訊科技指數為台灣科技產業之代表,NYSE FANG+Index為美國科技產業之代表,運用單根檢定探討是否為隨機漫步、共整合檢定探討長期是否將往ㄧ致方向移動、Granger因果關係檢定探討數列間領先落後關係,最後再以複回歸分析研究影響相關性之因子。
    樣本選擇方面,本研究以2014/10至2018/05為期間設定,資料頻率以日為單位,以台灣T日及美國T-1日進行配對,並且刪除無法配對之交易日,接續以程式跑出滾動相關係數。而在複回歸分析上,以滾動相關係數天期為基準,解釋變數進行增加或刪減,達到資料配對之準確性。
    經實證研究,本論文找出三項解釋變數,分別為黃金、波羅的海綜合指數及VIX指數。黃金價格上升時視為景氣下降之訊號、波羅的海綜合指數上升時視為景氣上升時訊號,而VIX指數視為市場波動幅度之訊號。由結論可知,黃金與滾動相關係數為負相關,而波羅的海綜合指數與VIX指數為正相關。


    Technology industry in Taiwan has started from 1949, after several decades, the scale become larger, Taiwan’s technology industry has changed from providing hardware product to focus on both software and hardware. Recently, it has gradually change from equipment manufacturer to R&D and innovation country. It is expected that after the rise of the Chinese market and the Southeast Asian market, there will still be an internationally invincible position. Taiwan is also an export-oriented country, in which export equipment is dominated by electrical equipment and parts, and its proportion has risen year by year..Thus, the study aims to discuss the Taiwan technology industry status and the connection between U.S.
    The study using TSEC Taiwan Technology Index as the representative of Taiwan's technology industry, NYSE FANG+Index is the representative of the US technology industry. First, using unit root test to detect whether there is randomly walk, co-integration test to detect same direction, and granger causality test to detect leading relationship. Last, using multiple regression analysis to find out the impact factor.
    The data started from October, 2014 to May, 2018 and using the daily data to be the base. In order to match the data, with Taiwan T Day and US T-1 day, and the unmatched trading day was deleted. For the multiple regression analysis, based on the rolling correlation coefficient days, the explanatory variables are added or deleted to achieve the accuracy of data matching.
    Through empirical research, the study using Gold, VIX and BDI to be dependent variable. Gold can represent the signal of economic recession, BDI can represent the signal of economic growth, and VIX can represent the signal of fluctuate market.The empire result shows that Gold and rolling index has a negative correlation, however, VIX and BDI has a positive correlation.

    摘 要 IV ABSTRACT V 誌 謝 VI 目 錄 VII 圖目錄 IX 表目錄 X 第壹章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與背景 1 第二節 研究目的與貢獻 2 第貳章 文獻探討 3 第一節 NYSE FANG+ Index與台灣資訊科技指數 3 第二節 投資理論與國內外研究文獻探討 5 第三節 台灣資訊科技業過去發展與未來展望 9 第參章 研究方法 12 第一節 資料選擇 12 第二節 研究架構 13 第三節 研究假說 14 第四節 研究變數選擇 15 第五節 研究分析方法 18 第肆章 實證結果 22 第一節 敘述性統計 22 第二節 相關性檢定之實證結果 23 第三節 單根檢定之實證結果 24 第四節 VAR最適落後期數 26 第五節 共整合檢定之實證結果 27 第六節 Granger因果關係之實證結果 28 第七節 複迴歸分析之實證結果 29 第伍章 結論與建議 31 第一節 研究結論 31 第二節 研究建議 32 參考文獻 33 (一) 中文文獻 33 (二) 英文文獻 34 附錄一 36

    (一)中文文獻
    1.丁宇唐(2018),VIX與全球總體經濟變數互動關係,The Interactive Relations of VIX with Global Macroeconomic Variables。
    2.王冠閔、黃柏農(2004),台灣股﹑匯市與美國股市關聯性探討,Discussing The Linkage Between The Stock and Exchange Market of Taiwan and The Stock Market of US,臺灣經濟預測與政策,中央研究院經濟研究所 34 : 2 (2004), 31–72。
    3.行政法講義–第一篇「緒論」–第十六章「台灣的科技發展與成就」。
    4.李顯儀‧鄭燕芬‧李欣微(2010),金融風暴期間金融業對其他產業之蔓延效應–以REITs市場為例,Financial Tsunami and Contagion Effects: Evidence from the REITs Markets。
    5.施瓊如(2018),VIX指數與美國債市、匯市、股市趨勢之探討,A Study on The VIX Index and The Trend of Bond Markets, Exchange Rate and Stock Markets of U.S.。
    6.康文姿(2009),美股指數波動對台股指數之影響-探究2008年電子與金融類股,US stock market index fluctuation to influence of the Taiwan stock market index Inquires into 2008 electronic and the financial sector。
    7.張瑛淑(2010),台股指數、美股指數的預測及兩者關聯性之分析,Forecast of Taiwan Stock Index and American Stock Index and a Study of Relationship of both Index。
    8.陳金隆(2018),國政研究報告–台灣高科技產業發展問題與對策。
    9.陳旭昇(2013),時間序列分析:總體經濟與財務金融之應用二版。
    10.陳萱倫(2002),台灣、美國、日本半導體產業股價連動關係,A Study on the Interrelationships among the Stock Prices of Major Semiconductor Companies in Taiwan, USA and Japan。
    11.廖國源(2002),台灣與美國股市動態關聯性之傳遞效果研究,The Study on the Transmission Effect of the Dynamic Linkages between Taiwan and American Stock Markets。
    12.劉晉嘉(2011),跨國股票市場之間的蔓延效果,The contagion of international stock market。

    (二)英文文獻
    1. Arshanapalli and Doukas(1995) "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period" Journal of Banking & Finance, 1993, vol. 17, issue 1, 193-208.
    2. Beckers, Grinold, Rudd and Stefek.(1992) "The Relative Importance Of Common Factors Across The European Equity Markets," Journal of Banking and Finllnce, 1992, v 16(1), 75-96.
    3. Bekaert and Harvey(1995) "Time-Varying World Market Integration",Journal of Finance, Vol. 50 (June 1995): 403-444.
    4. Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundbladd (2005) " Does financial liberalization spur growth? "Journal of Financial Economics 77 (2005) 3–55.
    5. Eun and S.Shin(1989), "International Transmission of stock Market Movements, " Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysisi,24,pp.241-256.
    6. Granger(1969)"Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica", Vol. 37, No. 3. (Aug., 1969), pp. 424-438.
    7. Newbold (1973) Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 2 (1974) 111-120.
    8. Newey, West and Kenneth D (1987). "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix". Econometrica. 55 (3): 703–708.
    9. Roll(1992) "Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices",Journal of Finance, 1992, vol. 47, issue 1, 3-41.

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