建築投資 (或不動產投資)具有高度的不確定性與風險性，而傳統的投資評估方法無法確切地表達建築投資在不確性因素下所隱含的價值。因此，本文針對建築投資之特性，採用實質選擇權(Real Options)的觀念，以Trigeorgis的對數二項式(Log-Transformed Binomial；LTB)及Pascal的三角形機率分配係數，建構兩階段開發之選擇權決策模式，探討建築投資投資第一階段開發與第二階段開發的延遲選擇權價值與兩階段之交互關係。同時，本文於每階段成本中導入物價成長率之參數，使成本隨著延後期數增加而複利成長，符合延後開發導致開發成本上揚的特性。最後本文進行個案分析，證實個案延後開發選擇權的擴張淨現值大於傳統淨現值的價值，表示建築投資推案在不確定因素下與延遲的特性下，確實含有決策彈性價值。同時針對模式變數進行敏感度分析，探討變數對於選擇權概念下之影響程度，以提供有別於傳統評估法之多元決策彈性，可更了解實質選擇權應用於建築投資之優點。

Real estate investment is characterized by high uncertainty and volatility. Traditional investment evaluation methods are usually based on Net Present Value (NPV) and may be unable to completely reflect the value of a real estate project under the influence of uncertain factors. Therefore, based on the features of real estate investment, this study employed the concept of real option and used Log-Transformed Binominal (LTB) proposed by Trigeorgis and Pascal’s triangle probability distribution coefficient to construct a two-stage real estate investment decision model. With this model, the deferral option value of the first-stage development and the second-stage development as well as the interactions between the two stages could be investigated. Besides, in the parameter setting of the model, growth of commodity price was also considered, so that the cost would grow at compound rates with the increase of deferred periods. This design complied with the characteristic that development deferral would result in cost increase and could improve the drawback of traditional binomial models where cost is defined as a fixed constant. Finally, from a case study, it was empirically discovered that the expanded NPV of project deferral option is greater than the value derived with the traditional NPV method, meaning that with uncertain factors and deferral, the real estate project indeed has a flexible value. Meanwhile, the accuracy of the case data could be further improved, so the variables in the model (including project revenue, development cost, volatility, risk-free interest rate, and cost growth rate) were tested in the sensitivity analysis to explore the impact of each variable on the option value. The results could be a basis for exploring the flexibility of various decisions with major variables considered in future real estate investment projects.

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