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研究生: 胡文正
Wen-Cheng Hu
論文名稱: 論我國後京都減碳路徑之挑戰與應有之策略思維-兼論2050年低碳願景之省思
Study for the strategy and challenge of Taiwan’s mitigation pathway in the post-Kyoto and 2050 low carbon vision
指導教授: 林瑞珠
Jui-chu Lin
范建得
Chien-te Fan
口試委員: 吳瑞南
Ruay-nan Wu
張宏展
Hong-chan Chang
蘇威年
Wei-nien Su
高銘志
Anton Gao
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 應用科技學院 - 應用科技研究所
Graduate Institute of Applied Science and Technology
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 151
中文關鍵詞: 聯合國氣候變化綱要公約巴黎協定低碳排放發展策略可量可報告及可查證
外文關鍵詞: UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS), Measurable, Reportable and Verifiable (MRV)
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  • 聯合國氣候變化綱要公約第21次締約方大會已通過巴黎協定,代表國際間對溫室氣體減量共同的企圖心,也是相關議題重要的歷史性里程碑。因應氣候變遷,全球皆積極投入減碳方案研擬與綠色能源發展,以實現經濟與環境的雙贏局面。本協定仍應按照不同的國情,反映衡平以及共同但有區別的責任和各自能力的氣候公約基礎原則,著重在解決如何推動因應氣候變遷長期架構之細部工作方案的問題,以促進邁向低碳願景與具氣候韌性未來之各項行動和投資。然而,引起暖化的化石燃料仍然占世界能源結構的80%,不論是世界的能源或是臺灣的能源實須要一個新思維;企業、技術及貿易無疑是確保低碳經濟轉型之有效工具。
    氣候變遷是全球性議題、全球性問題,同時也是一個全球性機會,亟需要全球性解決方案。科學強烈地指出,全球減量努力之任何進一步的延遲將增加邁向低碳未來的壓力。同時,若以長期規劃的角度來看,諸多國家設定2050年作為目標年,以遏制溫室氣體排放量,使世界保持最高溫度上升低於商定的2℃目標。綜觀「聯合國氣候變化綱要公約」協商進展及國內外政策趨勢,全球經濟復甦,各國皆加速推動綠色新政,並發展潔淨能源科技,創造綠色商機及就業機會。除了政府與民間都要有非常積極的作為,必須排除許多政策障礙,技術發展上也要有很大突破才有辦法達成。
    臺灣是一個新興工業化經濟體,亦是高科技產業全球生產鏈重要的環節,必須更積極的把握此一浪潮,不要錯過讓全球動能帶動我國新一波經濟成長的機會,我國產業應及早投入行動。節能減碳政策應能符合企業經營模式,使企業界有足夠的誘因去扮演一個積極且領導的角色。綠能科技發展具極大商機,產業應及早投入,把科技發展成更便宜、最大化的設計,創造共贏願景。為此,本研究乃就國際氣候協議談判關注議題,探索低碳排放發展策略及關鍵元素,從建構法制基礎做起,輔以落實科技網絡、善用市場機制、強化公眾參與、促進國際合作等國際間作法,並檢討我國減量績效之「可量測、可報告及與可查證」管理機制,掌握關鍵排放源,制定適當部門減量政策,以達成減量承諾。未來角色及對發展具國家特色之合理可行減碳策略,可作為我國於下一回合國際新氣候協議談判有力論述參考。


    The 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement in December 2015 which not only represented the common international ambition to reduce the global greenhouse gas emissions, but also marked an important historical milestone for the global climate issue. In response to climate change, countries around the globe are actively engaged in developing carbon reduction programs and deploying green energy, in order to achieve win-win results for economic development and environmental protection. Subsequent implementation of the Paris Agreement will reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances. Parties to the UNFCCC will endeavor to resolve the differences in detailed work programs related to the promotion of longer term climate change coping framework, in order to encourage actions and investments which can facilitate the achievement of low carbon vision and climate resilient future. However, the fossil fuels which are the main culprit for global warming still account for 80% of the world’s energy mix, and new thinking is required for solving not just Taiwan but the world’s energy dilemma. There is no doubt that businesses, technologies and trades are effective tools to facilitate the transition to low carbon economy, and that green energy development is an inevitable international trend.
    Climate change is proven global concerning issue and challenge that it also turns into a global opportunity and requires a way to sort out. Science strongly indicates that any further delay in appropriate global mitigation efforts will increase the pressure towards low-carbon future. In view of long-term planning strategy, some countries determine the year 2050 as the goal, and to find ways to curb emissions so that the world can stay below the agreed maximum 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise. The trends in the UNFCCC negotiation process as well as domestic and international economic policies, it is clear that following the recovery of the global economy, many countries are accelerating their implementation of the Green New Deal in developing clean energy technologies and creating green business opportunities. However, both the public and private sectors need to act aggressively to overcome many policy obstacles, in addition to achieving major technology breakthroughs.
    Taiwan is a newly industrialized economy, and an important link in the global production chain for the high-tech industry. Therefore, it is imperative for the industries of Taiwan to take early actions and not miss the opportunities for the new wave of economic growth created by this global momentum towards low carbon economy. The government’s carbon reduction policies should be consistent with the business models, and provide the businesses with enough incentives for them to play an active and leading role. As the development of green energy technology comes with enormous business opportunities, the industry should try to get involved early and develop such technologies into cheaper and maximizing design to create a win-win vision. To this end, this study will discuss the key issues of future international negotiation on climate change and also explore the multi-faceted low emission development strategies including legislation of the response measures, implementation of technology network linkage, utilization of the market mechanism, enhancement of public participation, and promotion of international cooperation, as well as the future role of national communications. In addition, the development of management mechanism of the measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) appropriate to national characteristics will also review master GHGs emission sectors, and developing appropriate sectoral reduction policies, which may provide useful references for the next round of international climate negotiations.

    論文摘要 / Abstract I 誌  謝 V 英文縮寫 / Abbreviation IX 圖目錄 X 表目錄 XII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 「聯合國氣候變化綱要公約」之發展沿革 1 1.2 「京都議定書」之發展及締約方立場之歧異 5 1.3 「京都議定書」締約方減量承諾執行現況 8 1.4 「巴黎協定」之談判進展 17 1.5 締約方遞交「國家自定預期貢獻」/「國家自定貢獻」之狀況 26 第二章 文獻回顧 31 2.1 「聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會」之基礎科學研究 31 2.2 低碳排放發展策略之發展趨勢 34 2.3 「國際能源技術展望」有關2050 年的情境與策略 38 2.4 「聯合國氣候變化綱要公約」有關推動技術發展及轉讓機制之發展路徑 40 第三章 研究方法 46 3.1 「自上而下」(top down)與「自下而上」(bottom up)或兩者氣候行動策略 46 3.2 我國因應氣候變遷政策之盤點與分析 48 3.3 我國節能減碳政策執行成效之歸納及其關鍵元素研析 51 第四章 完善政策法制以利綠色成長 57 4.1 前言 57 4.2 藉政策法制驅動企業邁向低碳經濟之機制 60 4.3 遵循「聯合國氣候變化綱要公約」決議事項之必要性 64 4.4 自上而下(top-down)之階段管制目標vs.自下而上(bottom-up)之部門減量方式 65 4.5 溫室氣體實質減量管理模式之法制化 68 4.6 小結 70 第五章 提升減量技術潛能開創綠能商機 71 5.1 前言 71 5.2 完善國家溫室氣體報告所賴「可量測、可報告及可查證」運作機制 73 5.3 強化低碳綠能投資以落實國家減碳目標 79 5.4 小結 84 第六章 聯結國際創新市場機制以利氣候科技之擴散與育成 86 6.1 前言 86 6.2 智慧財產權(IPR)在移轉無害環境技術(EST)與在克服技術創新之投資貿易壁壘環境時所扮演重要角色 87 6.3 善用綠色金融工具以加速低碳經濟之轉型 89 6.4 小結 93 第七章 強化國內外公私夥伴關係潛力以落實低碳社會願景 95 7.1 前言 95 7.2 善用公眾參與及專家代理機制 96 7.3 強化決策過程之全民參與機制 97 7.4 研提理想可行之減碳策略情境 99 7.5 小結 104 第八章 結論與展望 106 8.1 研究結論 106 8.2 未來展望 107 參考文獻 110 附錄 123

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