既有社會住宅之財務收支分析—以北部三處社會住宅為例

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研究生：	郭庭羽 Ting-Yu Kuo
論文名稱：	既有社會住宅之財務收支分析—以北部三處社會住宅為例 Financial Income, Expenditure Analysis of Existing Social Housings — Three cases of Social Housings in Northern Taiwan
指導教授：	杜功仁 Kung-Jen Tu
口試委員:	黃世孟 Shih-Mong Huang 顏世禮 Shih-Li Yan 江維華 Wei-Hua Chiang
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	設計學院 - 建築系 Department of Architecture
論文出版年：	2022
畢業學年度：	110
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	100
中文關鍵詞：	社會住宅、自償率、財務收支分析、投資績效評估、敏感度分析
外文關鍵詞：	Social housing, Self-liquidating Ratio, Financial income and expenditure analysis, Investment Performance Evaluation, Sensitivity Analysis
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民生的安居一直是國家重要的政策之一，社會住宅便是各國家都重視且開發的社會福利設施。台灣的社會住宅從開發評估、設計施工到營運維護都是由政府全權執行，每一項步驟都是需要龐大的資金。在社會住宅不斷開發的同時，若是幾乎都處在高赤字的情況下，會帶給政府的財政一大負擔。
本研究以北部 A、B、C 三處社宅作為研究對象，並針對「投資績效分析」的角度來評估社會住宅的財務表現，暫且不提及社會住宅給總體社會帶來其他的經濟效益。因此本研究的目的有三個:1. 彙整三處既有社會住宅的收支項目現況;2. 製作社會住宅 50 年營運期的現金流量表及投資績效評估;3. 進行敏感度分析結果找出最佳投資績效及後續建議。綜合上述觀點，以下為本研究的具體成果:
1. 彙整三處既有社會住宅各項收入支出項目:本研究歸納三處社會住宅從前期的興建成本至營運期間的各項收支費用，分析出三者中以 B 社宅總樓地板面積的平均成本高於另外兩者，每坪造價 144,055 元/坪，A 社宅 96,623 元/坪、C 社宅 130,929 元/坪;租金收入的多寡也有很大的影響，僅有住宅收入與停車位收入的 B 社宅即為三者收入最低的社會住宅，平均收入 439.9 元/坪-月，A 社宅 539.6 元/坪-月、C 社宅 581.4 元/坪-月。
2. 為社會住宅製作現金流量表並執行投資績效分析與敏感度分析:依據上述所整理的三處社宅各項營運期收支項目進行未來營運 50 年期的現金流量表，根據三處社宅的營運狀況做相符的設定，進行投資績效評估。評估的結果確實以 B 社宅的財務狀況較嚴苛無法達到投資績效，自償率僅有 51.6%，A、C 社宅皆可以完全自償，A 社宅自償率最高 120.71%， C 社宅自償率 107.8%。進一步將影響社宅的投資績效歸納出「融資利率」、「租金上漲率」、「物業管理費上漲率」及「重置成本費」四項影響因子，其中「融資利率」是唯一一項對三處社宅都不建議做變動的因子，融資利率不超過 1%為上限。

People’s accommodation has always been one of the most important policies of a nation. Social housing is a welfare implement all countries value. From construction to management, government in Taiwan takes fully control of every aspect of social housing. Every step inquires massive load of funds. If finance constantly stays in the red during the development of social housing, it would be a great burden for the government’s finance.
This study takes three social housings located at the northern part of Taiwan, A, B, and C as research objects. and evaluates their investment performances at the end of the period. Therefore, the purposes of this study are as followed: 1. To summarize the current status of the income expenditure of the three existing social houses; 2. To produce cash flow statement and investment performance evaluation covering the 50-year operating span of social housings; 3. To carry out sensitivity analysis results to find out the best investment performance and follow-up recommendations. Based on the perspectives above, the concrete results of this study are as followed:
1. To collect and organize various income expenditure data of the three existing social houses: This study summarizes the various income and expenses of the three social housings from the initial cost of construction to the operation period. The study finds out that the average cost of the total floor area of social housing B is the highest among the three, 144,055 NTD per ping, while social housing A is 96,623 NTD per ping, and social housing C is 130,929 NTD per ping. Meanwhile, the amount of rental income also has a great impact. Social housing B has the lowest rental income among the three, 439.9 NTD per ping of a month, social housing A is 539.6 NTD per ping of a month, and social housing C is 581.4 NTD per ping of a month.
2. To Produce a cash flow statement for social housing and to conduct investment performance analysis and sensitivity analysis: Based on the above-mentioned income and expenditure items of the three social housing, make assumptions about the operating period of the cash flow statement for the next 50 years. The evaluation result is also that social housing B cannot achieve the investment performance. The Self-liquidating Ratio of social housing B is 51.6%, which is the only one cannot fully self-liquidated among the three, the Self-liquidating Ratio of social housing A is 120.71%, and social housing C is 107.8%. The study further divides the investment performance affecting social housing into "financing rate", "rent increase rate", "operational benefit rate" and "replacement cost" four influencing factors. Among them, the "financing rate" is the only factor that is not recommended to be changed for all of the social housings, and the financing rate does not exceed 1% as the upper limit.

中文摘要 ........................................................................................................................................... I
Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... III
謝誌 .................................................................................................................................................. V
目錄 ...............................................................................................................................................VII
圖目錄 ............................................................................................................................................ XI
表目錄 ......................................................................................................................................... XIII
第一章 緒論
1研究背景與動機  .....................................................................................................................................1
2研究目的.....................................................................................................................1
3 研究方法與流程 .....................................................................................................................2
4 研究架構 ..................................................................................................................................3
第二章文獻回顧 .............................................................................................................................5
1台灣的公共住宅政策............................................................................................................5
1.1 國民住宅政策之演變 ...............................................................................................5
1.2 從國民住宅到社會住宅政策 ..................................................................................5
2 國外社會住宅的興辦模式 ...................................................................................................6
2.1 荷蘭的社會住宅政策 ...............................................................................................6
2.2 美國的社會住宅政策發展.......................................................................................7
3投資績效及財務收支分析 ...................................................................................................8
小結..........................................................................................................................................8
第三章 社會住宅的財務收支現況調查與分析...........................................................................11
1 社會住宅收支的資料收集方法.........................................................................................11
2 A 社會住宅...........................................................................................................................15
2.1 興建期成本 ..............................................................................................................15
2.2 租金收入 ..................................................................................................................15
2.3 營運支出 ..................................................................................................................18
2.4 民國 101∼110 年營運收支統整..........................................................................20
3 B 社會住宅 ...........................................................................................................................22
3.1 興建期成本 ..............................................................................................................22
3.2 租金收入 ..................................................................................................................23
3.3 營運支出 ..................................................................................................................24
3.4 民國 104∼110 年營運收支統整..........................................................................26
4 C 社會住宅 ...........................................................................................................................28
4.1 興建期成本 ..............................................................................................................28
4.2 租金收入 ..................................................................................................................29
4.3 營運支出 ..................................................................................................................30
4.4 民國 107∼110 年營運收支統整..........................................................................32
5 小結........................................................................................................................................33
第四章 三處社會住宅的投資績效評估 .......................................................................................35
1 未來收入支出的變動性假設 .............................................................................................35
1.1 租金收入出租率及上漲率之假設........................................................................35
1.2 營運支出上漲率之假設.........................................................................................37
1.3 折現率.......................................................................................................................38
2 A 社會住宅之投資績效評估 .............................................................................................39
2.1 50 年現金流量表 ....................................................................................................39
2.2 50 年簡易收支表 ....................................................................................................42
2.3 自償率分析 ..............................................................................................................42
2.4 淨現值.......................................................................................................................43
2.5 內部報酬率 ..............................................................................................................43
2.6 折現後回收年期......................................................................................................44
2.7 敏感度分析 ..............................................................................................................44
3 B 社會住宅之投資績效評估 .............................................................................................48
3.1 50 年現金流量表 ....................................................................................................48
3.2 50 年簡易收支表 ....................................................................................................51
3.3 自償率分析 ..............................................................................................................51
3.4 淨現值.......................................................................................................................52
3.5 內部報酬率 ..............................................................................................................52
3.6 折現後回收年期......................................................................................................52
3.7 敏感度分析 ..............................................................................................................53
4 C 社會住宅之投資績效評估 .............................................................................................56
4.1 50 年現金流量表 ....................................................................................................56
4.2 50 年簡易收支表 ....................................................................................................59
4.3 自償率分析 ..............................................................................................................59
4.4 淨現值.......................................................................................................................60
4.5 內部報酬率 ..............................................................................................................60
4.6 折現後回收年期......................................................................................................60
4.7 敏感度分析 ..............................................................................................................61
5 小結........................................................................................................................................64
第五章 結論與建議 .......................................................................................................................67
1 結論.........................................................................................................................................67
2 後續建議 ................................................................................................................................68
參考文獻 .........................................................................................................................................71
附錄一 A 社會住宅 50 年現金流量表 .........................................................................................75
附錄二 B 社會住宅 50 年現金流量表..........................................................................................78
附錄三 C 社會住宅 50 年現金流量表 .........................................................................................81
                                

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全文公開日期 2027/09/22 (校外網路)
全文公開日期 2027/09/22 (國家圖書館：臺灣博碩士論文系統)

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