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研究生: 衛萬里
Wan-li Wei
論文名稱: 應用分析網路程序法選擇最佳產品設計方案之決策分析模式
An Application of ANP-based Decision Analysis Models for Selecting Optimal Product Design Solution
指導教授: 張文智
Wen-chih Chang
口試委員: 蕭世文
Shih-wen Hsiao
莊明振
Ming-chuen Chuang
陳玲鈴
Lin-lin Chen
陳建雄
Chien-hsiung Chen
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 設計學院 - 設計系
Department of Design
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 189
中文關鍵詞: 分析網路程序法模糊德爾菲產品設計決策分析模式0-1目標規劃新產品開發
外文關鍵詞: analytic network process, fuzzy Delphi method, product design decision analysis model, zero-one goal programming, new product development
相關次數: 點閱:709下載:70
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創新產品讓企業具競爭力並持續成長。前端程序(產品規劃與概念發展)則是新產品開發過程中直接影響未來產品上市成功與否的重要關鍵。因此,針對目標市場需求所構思發想的設計替選方案,是亟需一套整合產品形式、功能、特性、規格及經濟效益評估等之決策分析模式,以期達到產品設計最佳化且提昇開發效益之預期目標。
決策和選擇最佳產品設計方案首重於如何確立評估準則;而準則間是否存在相互依存性,亦需審慎考量。其次,對於新產品開發所需投入的人力、物力資源能否合理有效分配,更應納入決策最終方案之一部份。本研究依企業不同新產品開發策略和執行效益的需求,分別採用模糊德爾菲(FDM)專家問卷及SMART*2(規劃構面SMART × 設計構面SMART)結合分析網路程序法(ANP)進行新產品設計替選方案的權重排序;再將所得之權值導入0-1目標規劃(ZOGP)式中,於最佳資源分配的規劃和限制下,求取最佳解答(optimal solution)。其中,模糊德爾菲評價模式是經由學者專家群篩選評估準則,適用於界定不明確評估因子的決策分析個案;而同步SMART*2雙向ANP分析模式之評估準則,則透過文獻回顧與探討彙整得之,可因應大多數為求決策效率的新產品開發與設計案例。
本論文以MP3隨身聽及孕育體驗母子機兩個實務設計案例,分別驗證上述兩決策分析模式之可行性:前者所選出之最佳產品設計方案為C與D;後者則為方案A與方案C。是故,此選擇最佳產品設計方案之整合型決策分析模式,不僅有助於提昇企業決策品質,避免因錯誤決策造成公司組織莫大損失;同時,也提供產業界一套可資遵循的新產品開發評價機制。


In today's competitive global marketplace, new product development (NPD) ensures the continual success and growth of corporations. The front-end process, including product planning and concept development phases, is especially critical to project success since it precedes the system-level design phase and launch of the actual product development process (PDP). Thus, an integrated decision analysis model to evaluate and select optimum product design solutions is a crucial component for an enterprise.
In this study, two effectively developed decision analysis models based on the analytic network process (ANP) to help companies that need to evaluate and select an optimum product design solution from proposed design alternatives. In addition to considering the interdependencies and feedbacks among evaluation criteria and candidate alternatives, FDM/ANP/ZOGP model and concurrent SMART*2/ZOGP model also need to examine a company’s corporate strategy, implementation time, and resources allocation. Especially, which model should be applied in accordance with those evaluation criteria considered-whether they are ambiguous or crisp (if those criteria have been identified in advance). The fuzzy Delphi method is adopted first in FDM/ANP/ZOGP model to screen essential factors that have influences on the selection results; however, in the novel SMART*2/ZOGP model, we have chosen five crucial evaluation criteria for both aspects of planning and design, respectively (SMART×SMART). With the applications of these above models, an enterprise could benefit from it by avoiding flawed decisions.
Two empirical new product development design cases (an MP3 player and a pregnant-infant communication kit) were presented to illustrate the overall decision analysis procedure and to examine the effectiveness of these proposed new models.

論文摘要 Ⅰ 英文摘要 Ⅱ 誌 謝 Ⅲ 目 錄 Ⅳ 表 目 錄 Ⅶ 圖 目 錄 Ⅸ 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 6 1.3 研究範圍與前提 6 1.4 研究流程 7 1.5 論文結構 7 第二章 文獻探討 10 2.1 產品設計與開發 10 2.1.1 新產品開發(New Product Development) 10 2.1.2 產品開發程序與組織 11 2.2 決策分析(Decision Analysis) 14 2.2.1 方案評估與選擇問題 14 2.2.2 決策分析方法與應用 16 2.2.3 產品設計評價與決策 18 2.3 模糊理論(Fuzzy Set) 20 2.3.1 模糊數(Fuzzy Number) 20 2.3.2 模糊數基本運算法則 22 2.3.3 α-截集(α- cut) 22 2.3.4 解模糊化(Defuzzification) 23 2.4 德爾菲法(Delphi Method) 24 2.4.1 意義與特性 24 2.4.2 類型與實施步驟 25 2.5 模糊德爾菲法 28 2.5.1 Ishikawa等人(1993)模糊德爾菲法 30 2.5.1.1 Max-min法 30 2.5.1.2 Fuzzy Integration法 30 2.5.2 Chang等人(1995)模糊德爾菲法 32 2.5.3 陳昭宏(2001)模糊德爾菲法 33 2.6 分析程序法 35 2.6.1 分析層級程序法(Analytic Hierarchy Process) 36 2.6.2 分析網路程序法(Analytic Network Process) 40 2.6.3 比較AHP法與ANP法之差異 41 2.7 目標規劃法 43 2.7.1 多目標決策(MCDM / MADM / MODM) 43 2.7.2 0-1目標規劃法(Zero-one Goal Programming) 44 第三章 建構決策分析模式之研究設計 46 3.1 FDM / ANP / ZOGP決策分析模式 47 3.1.1 模式應用說明 47 3.1.2 模式架構與研究方法 47 3.1.3 實施流程與執行步驟 54 3.2 同步SMART2雙向ANP決策分析模式 57 3.2.1 模式應用說明 57 3.2.2 模式架構與研究方法 58 3.2.3 實施流程與執行步驟 64 第四章 實例驗證與結果分析 68 4.1 案例一:應用FDM / ANP / ZOGP決策分析模式 68 4.1.1 案例背景說明 68 4.1.2 模糊德爾菲專家問卷篩選評估準則 69 4.1.3 分析網路程序演算設計方案權值 74 4.1.4 0-1目標規劃求取最佳解 89 4.1.4.1 目標與決策變數 89 4.1.4.2 限制式之設定 91 4.1.4.3 運算結果及分析 92 4.1.5 分析與討論 93 4.2 案例二:應用同步SMART2雙向ANP決策分析模式 96 4.2.1 案例背景說明 96 4.2.2 確立SMART2評估準則內部相依性 97 4.2.3 雙向ANP同步評估設計方案權值 98 4.2.4 敏感度分析與決策模擬 112 4.2.5 0-1目標規劃求取最佳解 113 4.2.5.1 目標與決策變數 114 4.2.5.2 限制式之設定 115 4.2.5.3 運算結果及分析 117 4.2.6 分析與討論 117 第五章 結論與建議 119 5.1 結論 119 5.2 研究貢獻 120 5.3 後續研究建議 121 參考文獻 123 附錄 135

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