製藥工業已經成為重要的產業之一，並且在醫療照護的發展上扮演著關鍵的角色。製藥相關公司必須花費相當長的時間進行研發，並投入巨大的資金和心血才能成功地發展出藥物。製藥廠在藥物研發階段必須不斷的下決策以挑選出對該公司最具商業價值之藥物，若在藥物的挑選上選擇正確，則製藥廠就有機會從中獲利；相反地，該製藥廠則可能面臨倒閉破產的危機。因此，對於決策者而言，在各個藥物發展階段上要正確地做出決策是相當重要的課題。
本研究宗旨在於以模糊層級分析法使藥物評選過程得以更有效率地進行，由於藥物選擇乃多重準則的決策分析問題，因此我們將此藥物挑選的主要準則分解成兩群，包含財務構面以及研發構面來實施分析；也由於模糊層級分析法能夠為候選藥物進行排序，因此我們可以透過此方法替製藥廠挑選出最佳的解決方案。從本論文個案研究中，我們亦發現在有限資源的情況下，決策者透過模糊層級分析法來挑選藥物進入後續研發是非常實用且有效的方式。

Pharmaceutical industry has become one of the most important industries and plays a key role in health care development. It is vital for pharmaceutical firms to successfully launch drugs, also requires companies undertake the R&D for a long time, and invest enormous of capital and effort. Therefore, pharmaceutical firms have to keep making critical decisions on choosing the most valuable drugs while the drugs are still in R&D stages. However, if the decision for the drug choosing is right, the company can make profit from it. Otherwise, the company may face the crisis of going bankrupt, so it is very important for the decision maker to make proper decisions in every phase.
This study aims to propose a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method for the efficiency evaluation of drugs. Since it is a multi-criteria decision making problem, we decompose the problem into two main clusters grouping criteria including the criterion of Financial and Success Rate for Development, and the FAHP method is able to acquire a ranking of the candidate drugs for the pharmaceutical company, so we choose the best solution for the company. Following our case study, we conclude that the proposed method is a very practical and efficient technique for the decision makers to decide the drugs to go further R&D under limited resources.

Bellman, R. E., & Zadeh, L. A. (1970). Decision-making in a fuzzy environment management. Management Science, 17(4), 141–164.
Bollen, K. A. (1989). Structural equations with latent variables. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Boran, F. E., Genc, S., Kurt, M., & Akay, D. (2009). A multi-criteria intuitionistic fuzzy group decision making for supplier selection with TOPSIS method. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(8), 11363–11368.
Buckley, J. J. (1985). Fuzzy hierarchical analysis. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 17, 233–247.
Buyukozkan, G., Arsenyan, J., & Ruan, D. (2012). Logistics tool selection with two-phase fuzzy multi criteria decision making: A case study for personal digital assistant selection. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(1), 142–153.
Buyukozkan, G., & Cifci, G. (2012). A combined fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS based strategic analysis of electronic service quality in healthcare industry. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(3), 2341–2354.
Cabuk, S. (1986). Simple Test of Hypotheses on System Availability and Mean Time to Repair. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 35(5), 581–583.
Calabrese, A., & Costa, R. (2013). Using Fuzzy AHP to manage Intellectual Capital assets: An application to the ICT service industry. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(9), 3747–3755.
Cebeci, U. (2009). Fuzzy AHP-based decision support system for selecting ERP systems in textile industry by using balanced scorecard. Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 8900–8909.
Cebeci, U., & Ruan, D. (2007). A Multi-Attribute comparison of Turkish quality consultants by Fuzzy AHP. International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making, 6(1), 191–207.
Chan, F. T. S., Chan, M. H., & Tang, N. K. H. (2000). Evaluation methodologies for technology selection, Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 107, 330–337.
Charalambous, C., & Gittins, J. (2008). Factors influencing the profitability of pharmaceutical research. R&D Management, 38(2), 221–230.
Cheng, C. H., Yang, K. L., & Hwang, C. L. (1999). Evaluating attack helicopters by AHP based on linguistic variable weight. European Journal of Operational Research, 116(2), 423–443.
Desgrousilliers, M., & Roth, O. (2012). Drug development time is money for somelife-and-death for others.
<http://www.clinovo.com/userfiles/Drug-development-is-time-for-some-life-and-death-for-others.pdf>
DiNardo, G., Levy, D., & Golden, B. (1989). Using decision analysis to Maryland’s River Herring Fishery: An application of AHP. Journal of Environmental Management, 29(1), 193–213.
Economides, A. A., & Silvester, J. A. (1991). Multi-objective routing in integrated services networks: A game theory approach. Tenth Annual Joint Conference of the IEEE Computer and Communications Societies. Networking in the 90s, 3, 1220–1227.
Eilon, S. (1967). On the theory of games. The Production Engineer, 46(2), 112–120.
Fisher, R. A. (1925). Statistical Methods for Research Workers. London: Oliver and Boyd.
Fang, N. C., Yao, M. J., & Tseng, T. Y. (2010). On evaluating the efficiency of similar therapeutic-effect drugs using multi-criteria decision-making approaches selection result. International Conference on Computers and Industrial Engineering, Taichung, Taiwan, 25–28.
Fisher, R. A. (1955). Statistical Methods and Scientific Induction. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 17(1), 69–78.
Forman, E. H., & Singpurwalla, N. D. (1979). Optimal Time Intervals for Testing Hypotheses on Computer Software Errors. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, R–28(3), 250–253.
Gandpa1, J. I., Olateju, O. E., & Ehie, I. (2011). An integrated analytic hierarchy process-linear programming (AHP-LP) model for capital budgeting. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 3(4), 246–258.
Geng, W., & Hu, Y. (2012). Information Security Management Model Based on AHP. 2012 International Conference on Measurement, Information and Control, 352–355.
Herper, M. (2012). The Truly Staggering Cost Of Inventing New Drugs. Forbes February 10.
<http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2012/02/10/the-truly-staggering-cost-of-inventing-new-drugs/?goback=%2Egde_3044917_member_200051433>
Hsieh, T. Y., Lu, S. T., & Tzeng, G. H. (2004). Fuzzy MCDM approach for planning and design tenders selection in public office buildings. International Journal of Project Management, 22, 573–584.
Huang, D., & Meyn, S. (2012). Error exponents for composite hypothesis testing with small samples. 2012 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, 3261–3264.
John, V. N., & Oskar, M. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
Kahraman, C., Ulukan, Z., & Tolga, E. (1998). A fuzzy weighted evaluation method using objective and subjective measures. ICSC Symposium on Engineering of Intelligent Systems (EIS’98), 1, 57–63.
Kulak, O. (2005). A decision support system for fuzzy multi-attribute selection of material handling equipments. Expert Systems with Applications, 29(2), 310–319.
Laarhoven, P. J. M., & Pedrycz, W. (1983). A fuzzy extension of Saaty’s priority theory. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 11, 229–241.
Lee, S., & Ahn, H. (2009). Structural equation model for EDI controls: Controls design perspective. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(2), 1731–1749.
Lee, M., Pham, H., & Zhang, X. (1999). A methodology for priority setting with application to software development process. European Journal of Operational. Research, 118, 375–389.
Lee, H. H., Yang, T. T., Chen, C. B., & Chen, Y. L. (2011). A fuzzy hierarchy integral analytic expert decision process in evaluating foreign investment entry mode selection for Taiwanese bio-tech firms. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(4), 3304–3322.
Lei, P. W., & Wu, Q. (2007). Introduction to Structural Equation Modeling: Issues and Practical Considerations. Educational Measurement: Issues and Practice, 26(3), 33–43.
Levashenko, V., & Zaitseva, E. (2012). Fuzzy Decision Trees in Medical Decision Making Support System. 2012 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems, 213–219.
Li, X., Nukala, S., & Mohebbi, S. (2013). Game theory methodology for optimizing retailers’ pricing and shelf-space allocation decisions on competing substitutable products. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 1–15.
Li, Y., & Wang, L. H. (2010). A Study on Manufacturer and Suppliers for Product Innovation Coordinating to Avoid the Risk Based on Game Theory. 2010 IEEE 17Th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 1254–1257.
Li, Y. T., & Yu, J. Y. (2010). A Real Options Model for Evaluating New Drug Discovery Projects in Pre-clinical Phase. International Conference on Computers and Industrial Engineering, 1–6.
Liang T., & Tang, W. (2009). Fuzzy Game Theory and Applications in Financing. International Conference on Management and Service Science, 1–4.
Liu, S. Y., & Chen, J. G. (1995). Development of a machine troubleshooting expert system via fuzzy multiattribute decision-making approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 8(1), 187–201.
Lopez-Vallverdu, J. A., Riano, D., & Bohada, J. A. (2012). Improving medical decision trees by combining relevant health-care criteria. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(14), 11782–11791.
Meng, Q. W., He, Q., Li, N., Du, X. R., & Su, L. N. (2009). Crisp Decision Tree Induction Based on Fuzzy Decision Tree Algorithm. International Conference on Information Science and Engineering, Nanjing, China, 4811–4814.
Navada, A., Ansari, A. N., Patil, S., & Sonkamble, B. A. (2011). Overview of Use of Decision Tree algorithms in Machine Learning. 2011 IEEE Control and System Graduate Research Colloquium, 37–42.
Oddershede, A. H., Carrasco, R., & Barham, A. E. (2008). Multi-criteria Decision Model for Assessing Health Service Information Technology Network Support using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Ibero-American Journal of Computing, Quarterl Publication, Computacion y Sistemas, 12(2), 173–182.
Papastavrou, J. D., & Athans, M. (1992). On Optimal Distributed Decision Architectures in a Hypothesis Testing Environment. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(8), 1154–1169.
Punniyamoorthy, M., Mathiyalagan, P., & Parthiban, P. (2011). A strategic model using structural equation modeling and fuzzy logic in supplier selection. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(1), 458–474.
Quinlan, J. R. (1986). Induction of decision trees. Machine Learning, 1(1), 81–106.
Quinlan, J. R. (1993). C4.5: Programs for machine learning, San Mateo. CA., USA: Morgan Kaufman.
Quinlan, J. R. (2003). C5.0 Online tutorial. <http://www.rulequest.com> Accessed March 2012.
Saaty, T. L. (1990). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. 2nd ed. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh.
Saaty, T. L. (2001). Decision Making for Leaders. Vol. II, AHP Series, RWS Publications, (new ed.).
Saaty, T. L., & Gholamnezhad, H. (1982). High-level nuclear waste management: analysis of options. Environment and Planning B, 9(1), 181–196.
Saaty, T. L., & Kearns, K. P. (1985). Analytical Planning: The Organization of Systems. Oxford: Pergamon Press.
Saaty, T. L., Vargas, L. G., & Dellmann, K. (2003). The allocation of intangible resources the analytic hierarchy process and linear programming. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 37(3), 169–184.
Shaw, K., Shankar, R., Yadav, S. S., & Thakur, L. S. (2012). Supplier selection using fuzzy AHP and fuzzy multi-objective linear programming for developing low carbon supply chain. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(9), 8182–8192.
Simaan, M. A., & Takayama, T. (1976). An application of differential game theory to a dynamic duopoly problem with maximum production constraints. 1976 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control including the 15th Symposium on Adaptive Processes, 15(1), 111–116.
Varshney, K. R., & Varshney, L. R. (2011). Multilevel Minimax Hypothesis Testing. In Proceedings of the IEEE International Workshop on Statistical Signal Processing, Nice, France, 109–112.
Vidal, L. A., Sahin, E., Martelli, N., Berhoune, M., & Bonan, B. (2010). Applying AHP to select drugs to be produced by anticipation in a chemotherapy compounding unit. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(2), 1528–1534.
Xie, W. (2012). The research on the comprehensive evaluation of Herbal Medicine industry development using nonlinear principal component analysis and cluster analysis. International Conference Information Science and Technology, Wuhan, China, 546–549.
Yang, C. Z., & Li, H. M. (2011). Corporate Strategy and Environment: Study Based on Structural Equation Modeling. International Conference on Management Science and Engineering, Rome, Italy, 557–561.
Yang, R., & Wang, X. (2012). Monitoring on Safety Factor of Mine Roadway Based on Structural Equation Model. 2012 2nd International Conference on Consumer Electronics, Communications and Networks. 384–386.
Zadeh, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control, 8, 338–353.
Zadeh, L. A. (1968). Fuzzy algorithms. Information and Control, 12(2), 94–102.
Zadeh, L. A. (1973). Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybern, 3, 28–44.
Zadeh, L. A. (1975). The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning. Information Sciences, 8(1), 199–249; Information Sciences, 8(2), 301–57.