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研究生: Teketay Mulu Beza
Teketay Mulu Beza
論文名稱: 離網型微電網之再生能源系統容量規劃與技術經濟分析
Optimal Sizing and Techno-Economic Analysis of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for Off-Grid System
指導教授: 郭政謙
Cheng-Chien Kuo
口試委員: 張宏展
Hong-Chan Chang
陳鴻誠
Hung-Cheng Chen
楊念哲
Nien-Che Yang
張建國
Chien-Kuo Chang
黃維澤
Wei-Tzer Huang
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 電資學院 - 電機工程系
Department of Electrical Engineering
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 97
中文關鍵詞: 混合可再生能源迷你電網農村電氣化最佳尺寸技術經濟分析網格擴展能源成本敏感性分析
外文關鍵詞: Mini-grids, Rural electrification, Cost of energy
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  • 對於埃塞俄比亞等撒哈拉以南非洲的發展中國家政府來說,實現普遍電力接入一直是一個具有挑戰性的目標。將國家電網延伸至地處偏遠、分散的島嶼人口需要巨大的投資。同樣,由於燃料價格以及污染物排放氣體,獨立的柴油發電機需要巨大的運營成本。另一方面,提供 1 級和 2 級電力的小型太陽能家庭系統無法提供生產用途所需的能源。因此,需要一個中間解決方案來填補離網社區的能源貧困。
    如今,根據特定場地的環境條件,離網社區已考慮使用以太陽能和風能為主的混合可再生能源系統。與此同時,最近光伏電池板和風力渦輪機成本的急劇下降為利用混合可再生能源系統滿足不同國家的電力需求提供了機會。本研究旨在通過使用能源混合優化模型 (HOMER Pro) 軟件執行模擬、優化和敏感性分析,研究微型電網混合可再生能源系統為埃塞俄比亞 Kibran Gabriel 島供電的技術經濟可行性。將微型電網系統與獨立的柴油發電和電網擴展系統進行了比較。比較結果證實,微電網系統優於單機柴油發電機組和併網系統。此外,與指定站點的光伏/風/電池、光伏/風/柴油/電池和光伏/電池系統等其他微型電網系統相比,光伏/柴油/電池混合系統是成本最低的系統。
    根據分析,最佳成本效益的微型電網系統是一種包括潮流 (LF) 策略的系統,其中包含 25 kW PV、10 kW 柴油發電機、40 kWh 電池和 5kW 雙向變流器。最優的光伏/柴油/電池系統,平均能源成本 (COE) 為 0.175 美元/千瓦時,淨現成本 (NPC) 為 119,139 美元,可再生摩擦 (RF) 為 86.4%,減少污染物排放 33,101.69 千克/與獨立的柴油動力系統相比。在敏感性分析中考慮了對總水平輻照度 (GHI)、柴油價格和負載消耗變化的最佳微型電網敏感性。結果證實,在 GHI、柴油價格和負載消耗等不確定參數的變化下,系統將運行良好。


    Achieving universal electricity access has been a challenging goal for the governments of developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa such as Ethiopia. Extending the national grid to rural, dispersed, and island population demands a huge investment. Similarly, stand-alone diesel generators demand enormous operating cost due to fuel price in addition to the pollutant emission gases. On the other hand, small solar home systems that supply tier 1 and tier 2 levels of electricity are incapable to deliver the required energy for productive uses. Therefore, an intermediate solution is required to fill up the energy poverty of off-grid communities.
    Nowadays, depending on the environmental conditions of the specific site, hybrid renewable energy systems mainly solar and wind have been considered for off-grid communities. At the same time, recent steep decline in the cost of PV panels and wind turbines opens up an opportunity to utilize hybrid renewable energy systems to meet the electrical demand in different countries. This study aims to investigate the techno-economic feasibility of mini-grid hybrid renewable energy system to electrify Kibran Gabriel island in Ethiopia, through execution of simulation, optimization and sensitivity analysis using Hybrid Optimization Models for Energy Resources (HOMER Pro) software. The mini-grid systems were compared with stand-alone diesel based power generation, and grid extension systems. The results of comparison have confirmed that the mini-grid systems are better than stand-alone diesel generator, and grid-extension system. Moreover, the hybrid PV/diesel/battery system is the lowest cost system compared with other mini-grid systems such as PV/wind/battery, PV/wind/diesel/battery, and PV/battery systems for the specified site.
    Based on the analysis, the best cost-effective mini-grid system is the one including load flow (LF) strategy with 25 kW of PV, 10 kW of diesel generator, 40 kWh of battery, and 5 kW of bi-directional convertor. The optimal PV/diesel/battery system, having levelized cost of energy (COE) of 0.175 $/kWh, net present cost (NPC) of 119,139 $ and renewable friction (RF) of 86.4%, reduces the pollutant emissions by 33,101.69 kg/yr compared to stand-alone diesel based power system. The optimal mini-grid sensitivity to the variations in global horizontal irradiance (GHI), diesel price and load consumption were considered in the sensitivity analysis. The result confirms that the system will operate reasonably well with the variations of the uncertain parameters such as GHI, diesel price, and load consumption.

    Abstract v Acknowledgements vii List of Principal Symbols and Abbreviations xii List of Figures xv List of Tables xvii Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1. Background 1 1.2. Study Motivation 4 1.3. Study Objective 5 1.4. Scope of the Research 5 1.5. Organization of the Dissertation 5 Chapter 2 Literature Review 8 2.1. Electricity Access and Optimal Sizing Issues of Hybrid Systems 8 2.2. Grid-Extension and the National Grid 11 2.3. Stand-alone Diesel based Power Generation 13 2.4. Solar Home Systems (SHS) 14 2.5. Mini-Grid Systems 16 Chapter 3 Research Methods and Materials 23 3.1. Research Methods 23 3.2. Site Description 25 3.3. Description of Simulation Software 26 3.4. Global Horizontal Irradiance and Wind Speed 26 3.5. Load Profile 28 3.6. Diesel Price 30 3.7. Economic Assignment Criteria 30 3.7.1. Annual Real Interest Rate 30 3.7.2. Capacity Recovery Factor 30 3.7.3. Net Present Cost 31 3.7.4. Cost of Energy 31 3.7.5. Grid-Extension Cost 32 3.8. Electrical Assignment Criteria 32 3.8.1. Renewable Fraction 32 3.8.2. Excess Electricity Fraction 33 3.8.3. Capacity Shortage Fraction 33 3.8.4. Unmet Load Fraction 33 Chapter 4 Mini-Grid Hybrid Power System Description 34 4.1. Mini-Grid System Schematic Diagram 34 4.2. PV System 34 4.3. Wind Generator 35 4.4. Diesel Generator. 36 4.5. Power Converter and Storage System. 36 4.6. Grid System. 37 4.7. Dispatch Strategy. 37 Chapter 5 Component Cost and Financial Assumptions 38 5.1. Mini-Grid Component Cost. 38 5.2. Grid-Extension Component Cost 38 5.3. Interest Rate and Inflation Rate 39 Chapter 6 Simulation Results and Discussions 41 6.1. Simulation Results. 41 6.1.1. Stand-alone Diesel System. 41 6.1.2. PV/Wind/Battery System. 44 6.1.3. PV/Wind/Diesel/Battery System. 44 6.1.4. PV/Battery System. 44 6.1.5. PV/Diesel/Battery System. 45 6.1.5.1. Time Series Analysis of the Optimal Mini-Grid System. 46 6.1.5.2. Capacity Shortage Effects on the Mini-Grid System. 50 6.1.5.3. Emission and Pollution Analysis 51 6.2. Optimal Mini-Grid System Sensitivity Analysis. 52 6.2.1. Optimal System Sensitivity to Global Horizontal Irradiance Variation 53 6.2.2. Optimal System Sensitivity to Diesel Price Variation 54 6.2.3. Optimal System Sensitivity to Load Consumption Variation 54 Chapter 7 Conclusion and Future Direction 58 7.1. Conclusion 58 7.2. Research Contributions 59 7.3. Future Directions 60 Reference 61 Appendix 78

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