研究生: |
吳俊諺 Chun-Yen Wu |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
應用SVR於預測性維修中衰退狀態資料之預測 Applying SVR to predict degradation data in predictive maintenance |
指導教授: |
王福琨
Fu-Kwun Wang |
口試委員: |
歐陽超
Ou-Yang Chao 陳欽雨 Chin-yeu Chen |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 工業管理系 Department of Industrial Management |
論文出版年: | 2017 |
畢業學年度: | 105 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 60 |
中文關鍵詞: | 預測性維修 、支持向量回歸 、剩餘使用壽命 、滾動式預測 |
外文關鍵詞: | Predictive Maintenance, Support Vector Regression, Remaining Useful Life, Rolling Forecast |
相關次數: | 點閱:453 下載:3 |
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隨著科技的進步,生產設備也日趨精密與昂貴,系統的維護也相對的重要。其中預測性維修是對機台進行狀態監測,並在機台發生故障前進行維修,能使機台無預警失效的機率大幅下降。由於現在感測器的普及,精密及昂貴的生產設備都會裝上感測器,隨時監控機台狀態,能有效減少機台忽然停擺的龐大損失,預測維修已成為日後任何設備保養的必備趨勢。故本研究提供一個預測性維修的方法,運用支持向量回歸對物件進行狀態衰退預測,並算出物件剩餘使用壽命,掌握物件健康狀況,並預知可能失效的時間點,以避免系統失效的狀況發生。本研究在案例一中兩個測試零件的剩餘使用壽命如下: (37.10%,80.24%, Sutrisno et al.,2012) , (5.32%, 2.06%, 本研究) ,可見本研究的結果比較準確,在案例二中使用滾動式預測可以解決長區間預測不準確問題。
The production equipment is becoming more sophisticated and expensive as the progress of science and technology, the maintenance is also more important. Predictive maintenance is to monitor the condition of the machine and repair the machine before it breaks down. It will reduce the probability of the failure of the machine without warning. Due to the popularity of sensors, the precision and expensive production equipment will be installed sensor and monitor state at any time, it can effectively reduce the huge loss of the machine suddenly shut down. Predictive maintenance has become a necessary trend on any of the equipment maintenance. It provides a predictive maintenance method in this study, we use the support vector regression to predict the degradation of object status and calculate the object remaining useful life for predict the possible failure time, it can avoid occurring the system failure. The remaining use life of two test parts in case one is following below: (37.10%, 80.24%, Sutrisno et al.,2012), (5.32%, 2.06%, in this study), the results of this study are more accurate. In case 2, rolling forecast is used to solve the problem of inaccurate prediction of long range.
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