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研究生: 陳星宇
Xing-yu Chen
論文名稱: 基於大尺度異質資料之即時車流速度預測
Real-time Vehicle Speed Prediction based on Massive Heterogeneous ITS Data
指導教授: 鮑興國
Hsing-kuo Pao
口試委員: 李育杰
Yuh-jye Lee
項天瑞
Tian-rui Hsiang
楊傳凱
Chuan-kai Yang
孫敏德
Min-de Sun
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電資學院 - 資訊工程系
Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 44
中文關鍵詞: 大尺度資料高斯進程回歸Hadoop智慧型傳輸系統MapReduce
外文關鍵詞: Big Data, Gaussian Process regression, Hadoop, Intelligent Transportation Systems, MapReduce
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  • 對於一個日常工作者來說,每天開車上班是很稀鬆平常的事。但若遇到道路壅塞的狀況時,總是讓人不樂預見的。因此若是有一個即時的道路狀況偵測系統的話,可以幫助工作者提前排除塞車路段並即時的到達目的地。
    此篇論文主要是針對大尺度ITS感測器資料的預測,感測器的資料包含了速度、流量、佔有率的資訊,另外我們也根據附近的天氣偵測站獲取天氣資料。我們主要是蒐集各個異質的資料去準確的描述出現在這個車況。
    針對大尺度資料的處理我們套用了MapReduce的運算框架去實現,在預測方法上我們考慮當前車況並從歷史資料中擷取相符合之模式。另外,我們更進一步的探討當前車況與歷史車況中的時間跟空間的關係並套用Gaussian process預測未來車流資料。


    For routine workers, drive to work is a normal pattern in every day. If there is a congestion happened on his way to work, it is inconvenient to every one. Imagine that, if we have a real-time traffic forecasting system, it can help workers to avoid the road section which may happen traffic jam and the workers can reach destination on time.

    This thesis focus on large scale ITS data prediction. The sensor data consist the information of speed, flow, and occupancy. In addition, we also obtain the weather data from the neighboring weather sensors. For precisely decribing the traffic condition, we consider the data from heterogeneous database. For processing massive data, we apply MapReduce framework to implement our method. In the traffic value prediction, we consider the current traffic condition and find the corresponding pattern from historical data. Moreover, we also consider the temporal and spatial relationship between current data and historical data. For building prediction model, Gaussian process is our modeling method.

    Contents Recommendation Letter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i Approval Letter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii Abstract in Chinese . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Abstract in English . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix List of Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Proposed Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.3 Thesis Outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 Related Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3 System Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.1 Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.2 MapReduce Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.3 Training Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 3.4 Prediction Procedure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 4 Vehicle Speed Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4.1 Data Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 vi 4.2 KNN with Gaussian Process on MapReduce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.2.1 Weighted Euclidean Distance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.2.2 Historical Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.2.3 Map Phase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.2.4 Reduce Phase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 5 Gaussian Process Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 7 Support Vector Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 8 Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 8.1 Data Preparation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 8.2 Evaluation Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 8.3 Experiment, Result, and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 8.3.1 Vehicle Speed Prediction Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 9 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Letter of Authority . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

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