Bandung City is developing rail-based transportation to overcome the problematic factors of road traffic transportation (e.g. social, environmental, urban growth, and road traffic load), which is known as Metro Kapsul (a type of LRT). This study has objectives to construct the system dynamic model of LRT passenger demand in Bandung Station, forecast the passenger demand, and its behaviour. Urban passenger transportation system is the complex socio-economic system. The limitation of qualitative and quantitative research solely can be overcome by system dynamic method. System Dynamic approach is able to construct the model and describe interrelationship among variables. The data is gathered by using questionnaire and secondary data. After the model is validated and verified, the simulation result on three scenarios (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) shows that annual passenger demand in Bandung Station grows positively and the demand growth gradually decreases. The optimistic scenario has significant annual passenger demand than two others. The demand growth is more stable even gradually decrease. The result of the study suggests that the interval time of each departure is within 3-10 minutes. The increment of LRT passenger demand has decreased the road traffic load which affects the road transportation turnover becomes steady, the government policy is required to set the balancing the ridership of road and rail transportation. This research contributes to provide rail transit passenger demand by using System Dynamic approach and assist the business development for LRT stakeholder as the consideration in the future.

Bandung City is developing rail-based transportation to overcome the problematic factors of road traffic transportation (e.g. social, environmental, urban growth, and road traffic load), which is known as Metro Kapsul (a type of LRT). This study has objectives to construct the system dynamic model of LRT passenger demand in Bandung Station, forecast the passenger demand, and its behaviour. Urban passenger transportation system is the complex socio-economic system. The limitation of qualitative and quantitative research solely can be overcome by system dynamic method. System Dynamic approach is able to construct the model and describe interrelationship among variables. The data is gathered by using questionnaire and secondary data. After the model is validated and verified, the simulation result on three scenarios (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) shows that annual passenger demand in Bandung Station grows positively and the demand growth gradually decreases. The optimistic scenario has significant annual passenger demand than two others. The demand growth is more stable even gradually decrease. The result of the study suggests that the interval time of each departure is within 3-10 minutes. The increment of LRT passenger demand has decreased the road traffic load which affects the road transportation turnover becomes steady, the government policy is required to set the balancing the ridership of road and rail transportation. This research contributes to provide rail transit passenger demand by using System Dynamic approach and assist the business development for LRT stakeholder as the consideration in the future.

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