國內大型水庫各項水工閘門機械與機電元件大多已面臨老劣化現象，不論舊有或更新之元件均需定期維護保養、失效修復與更新，以確保設施與設備之正常運作；然而現行的水庫維護管理策略，大多只有定期對各水工元件做目視檢查與定期保養工作，或在發生損壞時進行更換的動作，其安全評估及壽命預測方法缺乏充分的理論依據，無法達到即時的維護保養。因此，如何有依據地預測閘門設施的使用壽命，並即時掌握其可靠度隨時間之變化，已成為一個迫切需要解決的課題。
本研究旨在建置一動態式可靠度分析模型，探討如何將閘門設施累積龐大之維護相關資料，運用韋伯可靠度模型將往常難以量化之質性資料進行分析，並運用貝氏定理結合類似情況的閘門元件，克服因閘門元件檢修資料不足造成分析上之困難，以增加可供分析的資料，持續更新閘門元件之可靠度與壽期，提供維護管理者制訂維護工作時的參考依據。

Recently, many hydraulic gates of reservoirs in Taiwan, for the most part of its mechanical and electronic components, are subjected to deterioration and degradation. In order to ensure the normal operation of hydraulic gates, regardless of old or new, all the components of these gates need to be maintained periodically, repaired upon failure, or renewed if unrepairable. However, the current maintenance strategies only include visual inspection and regular maintenance works, or replace once failure occurs. These strategies lack sufficient theoretical basis, and unable to achieve real-time maintenance. Therefore, how to predict the lifetime of these components through well-founded method, and base on that to secure their reliability over time becomes an urgent problems.
The objective of this research is to establish a dynamic reliability analysis model for the investigation of accumulated visual inspection records from the past, and discusses how to get the reliability about each components through this records. Moreover, for the sake of increasing the availability of data for analysis, this research also makes use of Bayes Theorem by combining similar records of components under analogous circumstances together, updating the reliability and lifetime of components continuously, providing reference basis for decision maker when establishing maintenance program.

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