研究生: |
Jeffrey Gunawan Jeffrey Gunawan |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
應用於假日負載預測之基於動態時間校正演算法與長短期記憶模型之混合式短期電力負載預測框架 Hybrid Short-Term Forecasting Framework for Holiday Load Forecasting based on Dynamic Time Warping and LSTM |
指導教授: |
黃琴雅
Chin-Ya Huang |
口試委員: |
方文賢
Wen-Hsien Fang 鄭瑞光 Ray-Guang Cheng 唐文祥 Wen-Shiang Tang |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
電資學院 - 電子工程系 Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering |
論文出版年: | 2021 |
畢業學年度: | 109 |
語文別: | 英文 |
論文頁數: | 73 |
中文關鍵詞: | 假日負荷預測 、短期負荷預測 (STLF) 、動態時間規整 (DTW) 、長期短期記憶(LSTM) |
外文關鍵詞: | Holiday load forecasting, Short-term load forecasting (STLF), Dynamic time warping (DTW), Long-short term memory (LSTM) |
相關次數: | 點閱:221 下載:0 |
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準確的負荷預測系統對於電力公司來說是有效管理系統運行和調度所必需的。然而,面對公眾假期,由於人類行為的急劇變化,負荷消耗模式的行為無法預測。因此,假期負荷預測是一個具有挑戰性的問題,因為假期期間的預測準確性與一般的工作日/週末相比有所下降。在本文中,我們提出了DynaLSTM,這是一種混合型短期假期預測框架,旨在預測即將到來的公共假期之前的最近一個工作日的公共假期的負荷消耗。 DynaLSTM由動態時間規整(DTW)和長期短期記憶(LSTM)組成。 DTW用於預測最近工作日和任何先前的補償性假期(如果有)的負荷消耗,而LSTM用於預測目標公共假日的高度不可預測的負荷消耗。此外,我們還提出了一種數據選擇程序(DSP),以系統地選擇訓練數據來訓練LSTM模型。當前結果表明,與其他方法相比,我們提出的框架在不同長度的假期中表現更好。
An accurate load forecasting system is necessary for a power company to efficiently manage system operation and scheduling. In the face of a public holiday, however, the load consumption pattern behaves unpredictably as a result of the drastic change in human behavior. Thus, holiday load forecasting is a challenging issue because the forecasting accuracy in holiday period fell compared to general weekdays/weekends. In this thesis, we propose DynaLSTM, which is a hybrid short-term holiday forecasting framework designed to predict the load consumption of a public holiday on the nearest workday prior to the incoming public holiday. DynaLSTM consists of dynamic time warping (DTW) and long-short term memory (LSTM). DTW is used to predict the load consumption of the nearest workday and any preceding compensatory holiday(s), if any, while LSTM is used to predict the highly unpredictable load consumption of the target public holiday. Additionally, we also propose a data selection procedure (DSP) to systematically select training data to train the LSTM model with. Present results demonstrate that our proposed framework performs better across holidays of different length compared to other methods.
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