本研究運用縱橫資料分析法探討2002年到2011年間影響中國出境旅遊的因素。使用中國旅客出境到前18大出境國的旅遊人數代表中國出境旅遊市場，還有6個經濟因素和2個國際性突發事件作為影響因素分析。主要實證模型為隨機效果模型，實證結果顯現出中國出境旅遊人數會受到中國人均GDP、旅遊目的國人均GDP、地理距離和實質相對匯率的影響。研究發現中國出境旅遊與中國人均GDP和旅遊目的國人均GDP皆為正向影響，而地理距離為負向影響。另外實質相對匯率為負相關，表示人民幣相對升值，中國人出境旅遊人數增加，代表相對的購買力增加及生活成本減少增加出境旅遊意願。

This study investigates the determinants and features of Chinese outbound tourism using a panel data analysis approach from 2002 to 2011. The empirical results which adopt random effects model (REM) show that the key positive determinants of Chinese outbound tourism are the per capita GDP of China, the per capita GDP of the destination countries, while the geographical distance has a negative impact. Furthermore, the real relative exchange rate also has a negative impact on Chinese outbound tourism. It represents that the appreciation of renminbi (the decrease in real relative exchange rate) increases the motivation of Chinese tourists traveling abroad.

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