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研究生： 阮氏芳
Nguyen Thi Phuong
論文名稱： 多階狀態航空運輸網路滿足旅遊需求之可靠度評估
Reliability Evaluation of a Multistate Air Transportation Network Meeting Travel Demand
指導教授： 林義貴
Yi-Kuei Lin
口試委員: 林義貴
Yi-Kuei Lin
曹譽鐘
Yu-Chung Tsao
歐陽超
Chao Ou-Yang
蘇國瑋
Kuo-Wei Su
蔡宗儒
Tzong-Ru Tsai
丁慶榮
Ching-Jung Ting
陳銘芷
Ming-Chih Chen
學位類別： 博士
Doctor
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年： 2018
畢業學年度： 106
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 76
中文關鍵詞： 多階航空運輸網路 、可靠度評估 、單一旅遊需求 、多重旅遊需求 、中途停留站數與時間限制 、預算限制
外文關鍵詞： multistate air transportation network, reliability evaluation, single travel demand, multiple travel demand, the number of stopovers and time constraints, budget constraint
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    • 航空運輸在全球經濟上扮演一個重要的角色；曾有多位學者研究最佳化航空運輸系統甚至提出演算法以評估系統之績效，而網路可靠度為一個評估許多現實生活系統績效的重要指標。本論文從旅行社的觀點評估航空運輸系統之可靠性，將航空運輸系統建構為多階航空運輸網路，其機場視為網路中之節點，兩機場間乘載旅客的航班則表示為網路中之傳輸邊；由此而知，本研究重點為探討滿足旅客需求之可靠度，因此將多階航空運輸網路可靠度定義為在給定的限制下能夠成功乘載一個特定旅客需求量的機率。本論文首先考量多階狀態網路需於時間與中途停留站數限制內滿足單一旅遊需求，隨後由兩個不同的面向擴展：(1)多重旅遊需求以及(2)加入預算限制，據此依序建構網路基礎模型及兩擴展之模型，並利用最小路徑的概念以評估可靠度，將其搜索過程加入此提出的演算法中。最後本文利用實際的案例來演示所提出演算法之程序及討論可靠度評估的含義，並根據此航空運輸網路的研究成果提供相當的訊息給旅行社管理者做為商業策略的決策依據。

    Air transportation plays an important role in global economy. Several scholars have studied optimizing air transportation system or proposed system performance evaluation algorithms. Network reliability is a crucial indicator to evaluate the system performance of many real-life systems. Not only airlines but also travel agents do their business under air transportation system. This work, therefore, evaluates the reliability of an air transportation system from the perspective of a travel agent. An air transportation system can be modeled as a multistate air transportation network wherein each node represents an airport and each arc denotes a flight carrying passengers between a pair of airports. Significantly, this study focuses on investigating the reliability of meeting travel demand. Therefore, the reliability of a multistate air transportation network is defined as the probability that a requested number of passengers can be carried successfully under given constraints. This dissertation first considers a multistate air transportation network meeting single travel demand under limited time and the number of stopovers then expands in two different directions: (i) multiplying travel demand and (ii) adding the budget constraint. Therefore, the basic model and two extended models are constructed in turn. This study employs the concept of minimal paths in reliability evaluation. Subsequently, searching procedures are added to the proposed algorithms. In addition, illustrative examples and case studies are utilized to demonstrate the proposed algorithm and discuss the implications of reliability evaluation. The findings from this study are convinced to contribute equivalent information to travel agency executives for their strategic decision-making regarding air transportation network.

    摘要 ......................................................................................................................................... I ABSTRACTS ........................................................................................................................ II ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .................................................................................................... III CONTENT ........................................................................................................................... IV LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................. VI LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. VII CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 1 1.1 Air transportation systems .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem description .................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Organization of dissertation........................................................................................ 3 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................... 5 2.1 Performance evaluation of an air transportation system ............................................ 5 2.2 Multistate air transportation network and Reliability evaluation ............................... 9 CHAPTER 3 SINGLE TRAVEL DEMAND UNDER TIME AND THE NUMBER OF STOPOVERS CONSTRAINTS ........................................................................................... 12 3.1 MANOT-S formulation ............................................................................................ 12 3.2 (o,T)–MPs generation and flow vectors ................................................................... 16 3.3 MANOT-S reliability and minimal capacity vectors ............................................... 19 3.4 Algorithm to evaluate the reliability ......................................................................... 22 3.5 Numerical experiment of MANOT-S ....................................................................... 23 3.5.1 A case study .......................................................................................................... 23 3.5.2 Model construction and reliability evaluation ...................................................... 25 3.5.3 Result analysis ...................................................................................................... 29 CHAPTER 4 MULTIPLE TRAVEL DEMAND UNDER TIME AND THE NUMBER OF STOPOVERS CONSTRAINTS ..................................................................................... 31 v 4.1 MANOT-M formulation ........................................................................................... 31 4.2 (o,T)–MPs generation and flow vectors ................................................................... 32 4.3 MANOT-M reliability and minimal capacity vectors .............................................. 34 4.4 Algorithm to evaluate the reliability of MANOT-M ................................................ 35 4.5 An illustrate example of MANOT-M from two origins to one destination.............. 36 4.5.1 Model construction and reliability evaluation ...................................................... 37 4.5.2 Result analysis ...................................................................................................... 40 4.6 A practical case of MANOT-M from two origins to two destinations ..................... 41 4.6.1 A practical case ..................................................................................................... 41 4.6.2 The reliability and computational time ................................................................. 43 CHAPTER 5 SINGLE TRAVEL DEMAND UNDER TIME, THE NUMBER OF STOPOVERS, AND BUDGET CONSTRAINTS ............................................................... 46 5.1 MANOTB-S formulation ......................................................................................... 46 5.2 (o,T,B)–MPs generation ............................................................................................ 47 5.3 Flow vectors and minimal capacity vectors ............................................................. 48 5.4 MANOTB-S reliability and minimal capacity vectors ............................................. 49 5.5 Algorithm to evaluate the reliability of MANOTB-S .............................................. 50 5.6 Numerical experiment of MANOTB-S .................................................................... 51 5.6.1 Model construction and reliability evaluation ...................................................... 51 5.6.2 Result analysis ...................................................................................................... 54 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH .......................................... 57 6.1 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 57 6.2 Future research ......................................................................................................... 59 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 61 AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................... 66

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