由於營造專案大多在不確定環境下進行，導致工期與成本有變異之特性，然而，一般研究中通常並未考慮在工期與成本之不確定性下進行專案現金流量分析。有鑑於此，本研究提出「營造工程專案現金流量模擬模式」，除可在不確定性之考量下進行工程專案現金流量之分析，並可改善工期與成本之不確定性下的分析方法。經由模式驗證後，發現因子週期及單價遲滯確會造成專案現金流量變異擴大，增加專案現金流量預測之風險。本模式之建構可提供營造廠商在工程投標階段能合理進行專案現金流量之預測，並作為工程專案財務風險管理之參考，以作為投標及準備專案資金調度計畫之依據。

Project durations and costs contain uncertainties, however, the uncertainties are usually neglected in project cash-flow. Accordingly, this research proposes “Simulation of Construction Project Cash-Flow Model”, which considers factor periods and rate retardation to improve the uncertainty analyses of construction project cash-flow. Variation were found to expend when factor periods and rate retardation were considered after testing. With model, contractors can forecast the project cash-flow reasonably, moreover, the results can be reference for contractors to bid, performance risk management, and prepare the plan of dispatch project capital.

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