維持穩定血液來源及促使捐血者持續捐血已成為當代醫療的重要議題。本研究利用2010至2014年台北捐血中心資料庫之捐血記錄，將每位捐血者之捐血歷史以時間序列（time series）與序列（sequence）型態呈現，並運用時間序列分群（time series clustering）及序列分群（sequence clustering）方式分析捐血行為，探究捐血人的主要型態與區隔這些族群的重要影響因素。研究結果指出序列分群更適用於此短期序列捐血資料，並得知捐血者的主要類型包括一次捐血者、一年捐血者、中途退出捐血者及持續捐血者。透過基於置換檢驗（permutation test）的變異數分析，本研究發現捐血量及是否為首次捐血顯著影響捐血者之回返行為。迴歸樹則指出高捐血量（500c.c.）與在固定式捐血點捐血的捐血者較易成為長期捐血者；此外，就首捐者而言，年齡高於三十歲的捐血者較易產生持續之回返行為。透過了解捐血者之回返行為與影響捐血人型態之變項，本研究結果可做為管理者針對不同類型捐血者進行管理介入與加強提醒的依據，並可提供捐血機構未來招募及維持捐血量的重要決策參考。

How to maintain stable supply of blood and to promote blood donors to donate regularly has been an important issue in a health care system. This study aims to use the sophisticated time series clustering and sequence clustering methods to investigate blood donors’ donation trajectories to categorize blood donors based on their donation behaviors and to investigate the associations between donors’ characteristics and their return behaviors. By analyzing the data containing the donation history from year 2010 to 2014 for all donors in the northern Taiwan, this study confirmed that sequence clustering approach outperforms time series clustering approach for data of short donation history. Blood donors can be classified into one-time donors, one-year donors, drop-out donors and regular donors based on their donation trajectories. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) based on permutation tests shows that donation volume and whether the donor is the first-time donor significantly affect their return behaviors. Regression tree also points out that (1) those who donate higher volume (i.e., 500 c.c.) and donate at the fixed site tend to become regular donors, and (2) those who older than 30 years old are more likely to return regularly. Through identifying the segments of blood donors and the corresponding key transition behaviors in their donation trajectories, the study can help blood centers to make better managerial interventions such as designing better reminding mechanisms or recruitment strategies, and is expected to make substantial contributions to the field of blood supply chain management.

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