血液為維持人體生命的關鍵組織，輸血更是醫療上的重要治療措施，如何穩定血液來源以及管理其供需是近年來持續受到關注的議題。捐血中心透過招募新捐血者及鼓勵既有捐血者回返捐血來確保充足的血液供應，而後者對於穩定血液來源的影響更大。本研究使用台北捐血中心 之捐血數據，以2010年首次捐血者為研究對象，將其後續五年（2010年至2014年）之捐血紀錄以序列數據（sequence）呈現，並利用基於模型的分群方法，以混合馬可夫模型（mixture Markov model）和混合隱馬可夫模型（mixture hidden Markov model）進行分析，並使用邏輯迴歸（logistic regression）以及隨機森林（random forest）模型探討捐血者人口特徵及短期行為與長期捐血回返行為之關係。研究指出捐血人短期捐血軌跡是預測長期回返行為的重要指標，而年齡也是影響長期回返行為的顯著因子，高於四十歲的首次捐血者有較高機率成為忠誠的捐血者。透過隱馬可夫模型，本研究亦藉由捐血量及捐血頻率等多頻道資料分析各群捐血人其隱藏於可視資料背後之捐血型態轉移機率。

Blood transfusion is essential for certain medical treatments. In recent years, considerable concern has arisen over the issue of how to maintain stable supply of blood components. While a blood center can either hold blood drive campaigns to recruit new donors or encourage regular donors to return to ensure sufficient supply of blood, having a donor donate blood regularly seems to be more valuable than recruiting a new donor. In this study, sequence data which contains blood donation history of donors from 2010 to 2014 were analyzed. In particular, the donors who donate first time in the first half of 2010 were followed up for five years and model-based clustering methods, including mixture Markov model and mixture hidden Markov model, were used to identify the clusters of the donors. After obtaining and interpreting clusters, logistic regression models and random forest models were adopted to investigate how demographic characteristics and the short-term behavior affect a donor's long-term return behavior. Results show that the short-term donation behavior is the most important indicator for predicting a donor's long-term donation behavior. Furthermore, “age” is also significantly associated with a donor's behavior, and those who are older than 40 years old are more likely to return regularly.

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