簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: Annaliza Zerna Estrebello
Annaliza Zerna Estrebello
論文名稱: Seaport Network Design Using p-hub Median Model and Tabu Search for the Strategic Port Development Initiative of Archipelagic Philippines
Seaport Network Design Using p-hub Median Model and Tabu Search for the Strategic Port Development Initiative of Archipelagic Philippines
指導教授: 喻奉天
Vincent F. Yu
口試委員: 曹譽鐘
Yu-Chung Tsao
郭伯勳
Po-Hsun Kuo
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 146
中文關鍵詞: network designp-hub medianset covermaritime network planningtabu search
外文關鍵詞: network design, p-hub median, set cover, maritime network planning, tabu search
相關次數: 點閱:341下載:10
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • As an archipelagic country, the Philippines’ seaports play a vital role in mobility and economic activities. As a timely and strategic undertaking to complement the nationwide thrust on infrastructure planning and development, this research investigates the Philippines’ seaport system as a network design problem. From an existing system of ports, hubs which leverage economies of scale are identified as ports for development. These identified hubs should be developed as trans-shipment, consolidation, and distribution ports. In the context of planning, future demand was represented in the solution through demand forecast values for all origin-destination pairs using Grey model and support vector machine (SVM). The forecast values are the data inputs to solve the p-hub median in minimizing network flow cost. p-hub median ensures that each node has access and is accessible by other nodes through node-to-hub and hub-to-hub links, therefore, sufficing the integration requirement. To include accessibility in the model, an important criteria in public transportation, cover constraint was introduced. The network of ports (n=135 for cargo and n=101 for passenger) was solved through Tabu search (TS) algorithm with optimality gap of 0.36% in comparison to benchmark results. The findings on hub locations, links/routes, and hub and link capacity will provide the strategic layer for decision makers in port infrastructure planning. Port management can use the strategic insights from this research as a backbone for a comprehensive planning solution that extends to tactical and operational layers.


    As an archipelagic country, the Philippines’ seaports play a vital role in mobility and economic activities. As a timely and strategic undertaking to complement the nationwide thrust on infrastructure planning and development, this research investigates the Philippines’ seaport system as a network design problem. From an existing system of ports, hubs which leverage economies of scale are identified as ports for development. These identified hubs should be developed as trans-shipment, consolidation, and distribution ports. In the context of planning, future demand was represented in the solution through demand forecast values for all origin-destination pairs using Grey model and support vector machine (SVM). The forecast values are the data inputs to solve the p-hub median in minimizing network flow cost. p-hub median ensures that each node has access and is accessible by other nodes through node-to-hub and hub-to-hub links, therefore, sufficing the integration requirement. To include accessibility in the model, an important criteria in public transportation, cover constraint was introduced. The network of ports (n=135 for cargo and n=101 for passenger) was solved through Tabu search (TS) algorithm with optimality gap of 0.36% in comparison to benchmark results. The findings on hub locations, links/routes, and hub and link capacity will provide the strategic layer for decision makers in port infrastructure planning. Port management can use the strategic insights from this research as a backbone for a comprehensive planning solution that extends to tactical and operational layers.

    CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Objectives 1.3 Research Scope and Limitations 1.4 Organization of Thesis CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Demand forecasting in infrastructure planning 2.2 Hub location problem (HLP) 2.3 p-hub median model on an archipelagic case CHAPTER 3 PROBLEM DEFINITION AND MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION 3.1 Problem Definition 3.2 Mathematical Formulation 3.3 Demand Data Preparation CHAPTER 4 SOLUTION METHODOLOGY 4.1 Solution Representation 4.2 Tabu search algorithm CHAPTER 5 RESULTS AND NUMERICAL ANALYSIS 5.1 Forecast data 5.2 Set cover model 5.3 Parameter selection for p-hub median on Tabu search algorithm 5.4 p-hub median with Tabu search on benchmark data 5.5 p-hub median with cover threshold 5.6 Hub selection and node allocation 5.7 Visualized passenger network design 5.8 Visualized cargo network design 5.9 Links CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH REFERENCES APPENDIX

    Abdelhamid, B., Berrajaa, A., Boukachour, J., Oudani, M., 2018. Solving the Uncapacitated Single Allocation p-Hub Median Problem on GPU. Bioinspired Heuristics for Optimization. Springer. Vol 774 (27-42).
    Abyazi-Sani, R. , Ghanbari, R. , 2016. An efficient tabu search for solving the uncapac- itated single allocation hub location problem. Computers in Industrial Engineering. 93, 99–109.
    Akgun I. and Tansel B.C., 2018. p -hub median problem for non-complete networks. Computers and Operations Research. 95 (56-72).
    AP data. http://users.monash.edu/~andrease/Downloads Accessed May 13, 2019
    Benítez, R.B.C, Paredes, R.B.C, Lodewijks G., Nabais, J.L., Damp trend Grey Model forecasting method for airline industry. Expert Systems with Applications 40(2013) 4915–4921.
    Cao, L. J. and Tay F. E. H., 2003. Support Vector Machine With Adaptive Parameters in Financial Time Series Forecasting. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NEURAL NETWORKS, VOL. 14, NO. 6, NOVEMBER 2003
    Chang, S.-C., Lai, H.-C., Yu, H.-C., A variable P value rolling Grey forecasting model for Taiwan semiconductor industry production Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 623–640
    Chiou, H-K, Tzeng, G-H, Cheng, C-K, Liu, G-S, 2004. Grey prediction model for forecasting the planning material of equipment spare parts in Navy of Taiwan. IEEE Proceedings World Automation Congress. Print ISBN: 1-889335-21-5. Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 20 June 2005
    Dangeti, P., Statistics for Machine Learning, Packt Publishing Ltd., 224-232.
    Daskin, M.S. 2010, Service Science, John Wiley and Sons, 214 – 215.
    Flyvbjerg, B., Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling. Transportation Research Part A 39 (2005) 522–530.
    Gilliland, M., The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2010. p.196.
    Guan, J., Lin, G., Feng H-B, 2018. A learning-based probabilistic tabu search for the uncapacitated single allocation hub location problem. Computers and Operations Research. 98(1-12)
    Ilic, A., Uroševic, D., Brimberg, J., Mladenovic, N., 2010. A general variable neighborhood search for solving the uncapacitated single allocation p-hub median problem. European Journal of Operational Research. 206 (289–300).
    International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) (2016) [online] http://www.ics-shippinp.org (accessed 15 April 2018).
    Kratica, J., Stanimirović, Z., Tošić, D., Filipović, V., 2007. Two genetic algorithms for solving the uncapacitated single allocation p-hub median problem. European Journal of Operational Research, 182(1), 15-28.
    Liu, S, Yang, Y., Forrest, J., 2017. Grey Data Analysis: Methods, Models and Applications. Springer Science+Business Media Singapore, pp. 13-16.
    The Manila Times. “The Philippines as an archipelagic state: advantages and challenges”, 2015, http://www.manilatimes.net/the-philippines-as-an-archipelagic-state-advantages-and-challenges/219455/ (accessed 15 April 2018)
    The Manila Times. “Port infrastructure development ongoing”, 2017 https://www.manilatimes.net/port-infrastructure-development-ongoing/348640/ (accessed 15 April 2018)
    Maldonado, S., González, A., Crone, S., Automatic time series analysis for electric load forecasting via support vector regression. Applied Soft Computing Journal 83 (2019) 105616.
    Maric, M. , Stanimirovic, Z. , Stanojevic, P. , 2013. An efficient memetic algorithm for the uncapacitated single allocation hub location problem. Soft Computing. 17 (3), 445–466.
    Mokhtar, H., Perwira Redi, A .A .N., Krishnamoorthy, M., Ernst, A. T. 2018. An intermodal hub location problem for container distribution in Indonesia. Computer and Operations Research 16(14).
    AL-Musaylh, M.S., Deo, R.C., Li, Y., Adamowski, J.F., Two-phase particle swarm optimized-support vector regression hybrid model integrated with improved empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise for multiple-horizon electricity demand forecasting. Applied Energy (217) 1 May 2018, pp 422-439.
    National Economic and Development Authority. http://www.neda.gov.ph/infrastructure-flagship-projects/ (accessed 15 April 2018)
    Odchimar, A., Hanaoka, S., 2016, Intermodal freight network incorporating hub-and-spoke and direct calls for the archipelagic Philippines, Maritime Economics and Logistics, 1479 -2931
    Oxford Business Group, 2015. “New port infrastructure and better domestic connections to aid Philippine transport”. https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/analysis/island-hopping-new-port-infrastructure-and-better-domestic-connections (accessed 15 April 2018)
    Philippine Development Plan, 2017-2022. http://pdp.neda.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PDP-2017-2022-07-20-2017.pdf (accessed 15 April 2018)
    Philippine Statistics Authority, 2018. https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/administrative-based/domestic-trade-statistics
    Plakandaras, V., Papadimitriou V., Gogas P., Forecasting transportation demand for the U.S. market. Transportation Research Part A 126 (2019) 195–214
    Presidential Decree 857 (1987) Office of the President of the Philippines. http://www.ppa.com.ph/sites/default/files/transparency_docs/PD_857.pdf
    Schobel, Anita, 2006. Optimization in Public Transportation: Stop Location, Delay Management and Tariff Zone Design in a Public Transportation. Springer, p. 2.
    Shabania, S., Yousefia, P., Naser, G., Support vector machines in urban water demand forecasting using phase space reconstruction. XVIII International Conference on Water Distribution Systems Analysis, WDSA2016, Procedia Engineering 186 ( 2017 ) 537 – 543
    Skorin-Kapov D., Skorin-Kapov J. 1994. On tabu search for the location of interacting hub facilities. Euro Journal of Operations Research. 73 (502-509).
    Suh, D.Y., Ryerson, M.S., Forecast to grow: Aviation demand forecasting in an era of demand uncertainty and optimism bias. Transportation Research Part E 128 (2019) 400–416.
    Villegas, M.A., Pedregala, D.J., Traperob, J.R., A support vector machine for model selection in demand forecasting applications. Computers & Industrial Engineering 121 (2018) 1–7.
    Wang, S.-J., Wang, W.-L., Huang, C.-T., Chen, S.-C. Improving inventory effectiveness in RFID-enabled global supply chain with Grey forecasting model. Journal of Strategic Information Systems 20 (2011) 307–322.
    Zhao, M., Zhao, C., Yu, L., Li, G., Huang, J. Zhu, H., He, W., Prediction and analysis of WEEE in China based on the gray model. The Tenth International Conference on Waste Management and Technology (ICWMT), Procedia Environmental Sciences 31 ( 2016 ) 925 – 934.
    Zhou, J-J, 2013, The application of grey forecasting model based on excel modeling and solving in logistics demand forecast, IEEE 2013 10th International Computer Conference on Wavelet Active Media Technology and Information Processing (ICCWAMTIP), DOI: 10.1109/ICCWAMTIP.2013.6716667.

    QR CODE