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研究生: Huy-Phuong Phan
Huy-Phuong Phan
論文名稱: 用於深層滑坡位移預測的多元時間序列深度學習:以台灣廬山為例
Multivariate Time-Series Deep Learning for Deep-Seated Landslide Displacement Forecasting: A Case Study in Lushan, Taiwan
指導教授: 周瑞生
Jui-Sheng Chou
口試委員: 曾惠斌
Hui-Ping Tserng
歐昱辰
Yu-Chen Ou
何嘉浚
Chia-Chun Ho
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 234
外文關鍵詞: deep seated landslide, displacement forecasting, groundwater included, direct multi-steps time series, the northern slope Lushan Taiwan.
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  • Deep seated Landslides are very dangerous geological events that pose a substantial menace to human life and property. The phenomenon is occurring with increasing frequency and potential presence due to the continuous change in weather conditions caused by global warming. The hidden nature of this dangerous phenomenon is becoming more pronounced. Therefore, constructing an early warning system for short-term forecasting of displacement in deep-seated slopes is critical for preventing property loss and hazards. In this study, a framework for deep slope displacement forecasting was proposed, utilizing numerous neural networks which are Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), 1D-Convolutional Neural Networks (1D-CNNs) model and three different deep learning time series: Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and 8-years hourly collected data from Northern Slope Lushan mountain area which situated on the right bank of the Talowan River in central Taiwan as a specific research case. Two displacement datasets measured at 40m and 70m combine with groundwater measure value at multiple stations, were respectively divide into two subsets: 90% for learning and 10% for testing. To be more particular, the deep displacement of the slope will be associated with a groundwater storage phenomenon and forecasted using direct multi-step window sliding - a numerical time series related technique that involves the creation of individual models for each step in the forecast horizon, the processed numerical data were then fed into the suggested deep learning models. The best individual models after training process were then will be used to construct a slope landslide early warning system. The results indicated that the deep learning approach provided stability and effectively avoided overfitting, with RNNs model show best forecasting ability with MAPE in both selected forecasting depths. Thus, providing a reliable result for the purpose of constructing management strategies can significantly contribute to road network and infrastructure system in Lushan hot spring slope area in Taiwan which ensuring adequate serviceability for this economic area.

    ABSTRACT iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vi TABLE OF CONTENTS i LIST OF FIGURES iii LIST OF TABLES v ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS vi Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 9 1.1 Research Background and Motivations 9 1.2 Research Objectives 12 1.3 Thesis Outline 13 Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 14 2.1 Groundwater Levels and the Forecasting of Deep-Seated Displacements 14 2.2 Forecasting Slope Displacements: Conventional Methods 16 2.3 Forecasting Slope Displacements: Machine Learning and Deep Learning 18 Chapter 3: METHODS 21 3.1 Artificial Neural Networks and DL 21 3.1.1 Deep Neural Networks 22 3.1.2 Convolutional Neural Networks 23 3.2 Time Series Deep Learning Models 28 3.2.1 Recurrent Neural Networks 28 3.2.2 Long Short-Term Memory 30 3.2.3 Gated Recurrent Units 32 3.3 Model Validation and Performance Metrics 33 3.3.1 Evaluation and Validation 33 3.3.2 Performance Metrics 35 Chapter 4: EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 37 4.1 Experimental Setup 37 4.1.1 Software and Hardware 37 4.1.2 Research Area 38 4.1.3 Data Collection and Preprocessing 41 4.1.4 Data Transformation 47 4.1.5 Data Preprocessing 48 4.2 Model Implementation and Analytical Results 50 4.2.1 Model Configuration 50 4.2.2 Analysis of Results 53 4.2.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Input Variables on Modeling Performance 59 4.3 Discussion 62 Chapter 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 65 5.1 Concluding Remarks 65 5.2 Practical Implications 66 5.3 Limitations and Future Works 67 REFERENCES 69 Appendix A. NUMERICAL DATA 74 Appendix B. CODE 204 Appendix C. TUTORIAL 221

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