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研究生: 吳永福
Yung-Fu Wu
論文名稱: 離岸風電水下基礎產業投資評估與夥伴關係遴選模式之研究
Investment Evaluation and Partnership Selection Model in the Offshore Wind Power Underwater Foundations Industry
指導教授: 鄭明淵
Min-Yuan Cheng
口試委員: 曾仁杰
Ren-Jye Dzeng
曾惠斌
Hui-Ping Tserng
周瑞生
Jui-Sheng Chou
楊亦東
I-Tung Yang
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 148
中文關鍵詞: 離岸風力發電水下基礎夥伴關係遴選模糊偏好關係逐步權重評估比率分析模糊理想解類似順序偏好
外文關鍵詞: Offshore Wind Power, Underwater foundations, Partnership selection, Fuzzy Preference Relations (FPR), Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA), Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS)
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  • 臺灣規劃2025年達成離岸風電5.7GW容量目標,預期創造新臺幣1兆元商機及提供兩萬個工作機會,成為全球營建市場上矚目的焦點。此一開發商機令人嚮往,惟其建造所需資本龐大,回收期長,再加上必須面臨許多未知的挑戰與風險,本土廠商對於是否參與產業供應鏈投資無所依據
    ,難以抉擇。
    另因離岸風電水下基礎造價昂貴,體積重量巨大,在歐洲製造完成後,海運來臺的成本跟風險非常高,考量目前臺灣工業技術及材料品質均屬成熟,具有發展本土化生產的優勢。業界如何慎選最適合作夥伴共同投入市場競爭,為一值得探討的課題。
    本研究創新針對臺灣水下基礎產業,發展投資評估決策模式(Investment Evaluation Model, IEM),應用FPR求取風險因子權重,再搭配數值評分方式計算總體投資風險值,提供廠商在無例可循的困境中,可以依據客觀指標,做出是否參與投資的輔助決策。並導入供應鏈分包商夥伴關係合作概念,首創建構整合SWARA-FTOPSIS夥伴關係評選模式,協助水下基礎製造商結合臺灣特性,遴選具備運輸及施工安裝條件最佳夥伴關係,一起合作參與國際競爭,獲取最大利益。
    最後以台電公司離岸風電第二期新建工程為案例進行驗證,結果確認本決策評估模式適切可行,不僅簡化以往複雜、繁冗之計算流程,並可以快速提供更為準確、客觀的建議給決策者參考。


    With a plan to achieve the target of 5.7GW offshore wind power capacity in 2025, Taiwan anticipates building a NT$1 trillion industry and creating 20,000 jobs. It makes Taiwan the center of attention in the global marketplace of building and construction. The offshore wind power industry in Taiwan has enormous potential attractive to many international wind farm investors. Nevertheless, due to huge capital requirement and prolonged time for investment return, among other challenges and risks, local Taiwanese companies have no basis for judgement and find it difficult to make the decision whether to invest in the industrial supply chain.
    In addition, offshore wind power underwater infrastructure is costly and the size and weight are enormous. As it is manufactured in Europe, both the cost and risk of shipping to Taiwan can be very high. As industrial technology capability and material quality in Taiwan continue to mature, it possesses the advantage to develop localized production. How the industry in Taiwan selects the most suitable partners to compete in the market is therefore a topic worthy of discussion.
    Aiming at Taiwan’s underwater foundations industries, this research is the first to develop the Investment Evaluation Model (IEM), apply FPR to obtain the risk factor weights, and calculates the overall investment risk value with a numerical scoring method. In a dilemma where no precedent exists for reference, the study provides auxiliary and supportive tools to help the manufacturers to make a decision, based on objective indicators, whether to undertake the investment. In addition, the paper introduces the concept of partnership and cooperation between subcontractors in the supply chain and establishes the integration of the SWARA-FTOPSIS partner selection model. It helps the underwater foundations manufacturers take the Taiwanese characteristics into account in their selection of the best partners who meet the requirements of transportation, construction and installation. Ultimately they can work together to compete in the international arena and maximize benefits.
    Finally, using the Taiwan Power Company (Taipower) offshore wind power project (2nd phase) as a case, the results confirm that this decision-making evaluation model is appropriate and feasible, not only simplifies the complicated and tedious calculation process in the past, but also can quickly provide more accurate and objective suggestions for decision-makers' reference.

    摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 IV 目錄 VI 圖目錄 IX 表目錄 X 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究範圍與限制 3 1.4 研究內容與流程 4 1.4.1 研究內容 4 1.4.2 研究流程 5 1.5 論文架構 7 第二章 文獻回顧 8 2.1 臺灣離岸風電政策規劃與產業發展 8 2.1.1 第一階段示範獎勵風場 9 2.1.2 第二階段潛力場址遴選與競標 10 2.1.3 第三階段區塊開發規劃 13 2.1.4 臺灣離岸風電產業整合發展契機 15 2.2 臺灣離岸風電水下基礎產業發展現況 16 2.2.1 離岸風電基礎結構介紹 16 2.2.2 臺灣選用水下基礎型式分析 19 2.2.3 水下基礎國產化商機 21 2.3 夥伴關係 22 2.3.1 夥伴關係定義 22 2.3.2 夥伴關係生命週期 24 2.4 離岸風電產業投資風險影響因子探討 32 2.5 水下基礎夥伴關係遴選影響因子探討 37 2.6 模糊偏好關係(FPR) 41 2.7 逐步權重評估比率分析(SWARA) 42 2.8 模糊理想解類似順序偏好(FTOPSIS) 44 第三章 建立離岸風電水下基礎產業投資評估暨夥伴關係遴選模式 46 3.1 投資評估決策模式(Investment Evaluation Model, IEM) 47 3.1.1 確立離岸風電產業投資風險影響因子 47 3.1.2 計算離岸風電產業投資風險影響因子權重 49 3.1.3 進行風險影響因子評分 52 3.2 夥伴關係遴選模式(Partnership Selection Model, PSM) 54 3.2.1 確立水下基礎夥伴關係遴選影響因子 55 3.2.2 計算影響因子權重 56 3.2.3 建立最適夥伴關係排序 58 第四章 案例分析與決策模式驗證 62 4.1 案例基本資料 62 4.1.1 離岸風場開發案例 62 4.1.2 水下基礎產業潛在夥伴關係合作廠商基本資料 64 4.2 先期產業投資評估階段 66 4.2.1 FPR計算險影響因子權重 66 4.2.2 進行產業投資風險影響因子評分 72 4.3 專案夥伴關係遴選階段 74 4.3.1 計算遴選影響因子權重值 74 4.3.2 評選最適夥伴關係 80 4.4 確定最佳決策方案 87 第五章 結論與建議 88 5.1 結論 88 5.2 建議 89 參考文獻 91 <附錄一> 影響因子權重調查問卷作業 98 <附錄二> 18位專家FPR權重計算結果 111 <附錄三> 4位專家SWARA權重計算結果 130

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