伴隨著經濟快速的發展，地球由一開始區域性的環境汙染，至現今演變成了全球性的問題。各國開始研究並發展對環境更友善的潔淨能源來取代化石燃料。對於風能資源相當豐富的台灣，離岸風場將是未來較有優勢且環保的替代能源；但在工程面向，強勁的風速可能會引起惡劣的海況，加上台灣季節性颱風侵襲的氣候特性，皆會造成海事工程施工期間的風險以及造成完工工期難以準確掌控的問題。海事工程是否能穩定施工取決有二，第一為施工船舶耐海的承抗度，第二為氣候因時因地之不確定性。故針對海事工程風場區域歷年數據進行分析，將能有助於施工的管理以及資源的投入。
本研究係針對離岸風電水下基礎工程受氣、海象影響之工期推估。首先將水下基礎工程的施工流程逐項透過國內外文獻探討分析，篩選出各作業敏感之氣、海象因子；利用問卷調查蒐集海事工程背景專家及學者過去的施工經驗，結合模糊理論彙整出施工作業與氣、海象影響因子之生產力關係，接著利用雙因子作業產能矩陣確立施工環境之生產力。另外，本研究針對具有承載能力之自升式工作船(Jack-up Vessels )建立影響因子限制閥值。透過蒙地卡羅演算法，根據上述參數以及運用2017年氣象局新竹外海風速、波高、降雨量等影響因子於數據資料進行施工工期估算模擬，方能求得各季節時期水下基礎工程施工之總工期，以期能協助管理者進行時程之管控，為本研究之宗旨。

With the rapid development of the economy, the environmental pollution has become a global problem. To curb the situation of the earth, each of countries starts to research and develop more friendly energy instead of fossil fuel. For Taiwan with the rich wind energy resource, offshore windturbine farm will provide the alternative energy which is more superior and environmentally-friendly. However, the rich wind speed may cause severe sea condition in terms of engineering. In Taiwan, typhoon’sseasonal climatic-characteristic will also give rise to the risk of Maritime Engineering and be hard to control the construction period. There are two factors which affect the construction inMaritime Engineering; one is the capability of the installation vessel and the other is the uncertainty of climate. Therefore, it will be helpful to analyze yearly data of Maritime Engineering windturbine farm for the management of construction and the input of resource.
This study is focused on estimating activity duration of offshore foundation under weather uncertainty.Hence,the first objective of this research is to filter mainly sensitive parameter of each work item by literature review.The second objective of this research is to use the expert questionnaire survey by whom has been involved in the construction of marine in Taiwan.After surveying the opinion of experts about the productivity relations between the workitems and the weather parameters ,the study draws trapezoidal membership functions dealing with questionnaire fuzzy semantic by the Fuzzy theory.Then use the two-factor productivity matrix to establish the operation productivity.In this study we use the typical limitsof jack - up installation vessel.
By using Monte Carlo simulation and the historical weather datas(wind、wave、rain),this study establishes the Duration Assessment Model to simulate the duration by different circumstance.Accroding to the result,it confirms with practice .The construction schedule manager can plan effectively cause this study also proposed the appropriate date of begining the installation.

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