在現實生活中，及時交貨為一物流系統之主要績效指標，且配送情況經常為由多個供應商配送多種產品至多個需求點之物流系統。本研究建構多階狀態多產品物流網路(multistate multi-commodity logistics network, MMLN)模型，因業者所提供的車數可能基於配給其他客戶使用，故客戶能使用的貨車數量為多階狀態且對應一機率分配。此網路包含了節點(node)與傳輸邊(route)，其中傳輸邊代表連接兩節點之路線，而節點則為供應商(supplier)、物流中心(distribution center)或是
區域(region)，且多家零售店因地理位置而形成一區域。在運輸時間上，本研究考量了旅行時間、服務時間以及配送時間，服務時間包含卸貨、揀貨與裝載等，配送時間則因區域內的車數多寡所影響，而車輛到達物流中心的時間必須在時窗(time windows)之內。本研究提出一網路可靠度(network reliability)做為物流績效指標用以評估時窗、時間限制下之多階狀態多產品物流網路，網路可靠度之定義為此網路在時間限制下成功滿足區域需求量之機率。本研究首先針對每一供應商提供一特定產品之情境提出一演算法以求得滿足區域需求及時間限制之網路可靠度，透過一實際案例探討零售企業之物流系統以演示所提出之演算法。接著，為了更貼近真實的物流狀況，本論文進一步將每一供應商提供多樣化產品納入考量，並針對每供應商提供多種產品之狀況發展新演算法進行網路可靠度計算。從決策觀點，管理者可運用所提出兩演算法求算網路可靠度，透過此績效指標了解多階狀態多產品物流網路之能力，並進行更進一步的決策與分析。

In real world, logistics systems are often used to characterize the distribution of multi-commodity with multiple sources and sinks within the promised time constraint. Moreover, network has been adopted extensively in many real-world systems. This thesis focuses on a logistics network with suppliers, distribution centers, or regions, and routes. In the region, numerous retailers and demand requirement are contained. The available capacity on each route is stochastic and multistate because the capacity may be partially reserved by other customers, and the logistics network can be regarded as a multistate multi-commodity logistics network (MMLN). This thesis is mainly to evaluate network reliability. Such network reliability can be treated as a logistics performance index. We consider the total delivery time consisting of travel time, service time, and distribution time, where service time contains unloading, picking, and loading time, and the time when vehicles arrive at distribution center should be within the time window. An algorithm is firstly proposed to calculate network reliability and a practical case of convince store logistics system is presented to emphasize the managerial implication of network reliability. Moreover, a model is further extended to each supplier has a variety of commodities to delivery, and an algorithm is further developed in terms of minimal paths to evaluate the network
reliability. From the decision-making viewpoint, supervisors can evaluate network
reliability by proposed algorithms and treat it as a capability indicator to know
whether MMLN satisfies demand within a time constraint and make decisions.

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