The tunnel drainage system is an important of modern city and tunnel is one of the civil engineering constructions that carried out under uncertain condition and environment. An encounter of unforeseen ground conditions not only affects our schedule and imposes large extra costs but may also introduce additional hazards. Crucial pre-construction phase decisions and construction phase decision are strongly influenced by expected ground condition. A geologic prediction model to quantify the risk of tunneling and predict the ground condition for un-constructed part of the tunnel using real time Bayesian analysis is proposed. A probabilistic model, discrete state continuous time Markov process, is used to model the geologic condition along the tunnel alignment. A Hidden Markov Model is used to incorporate new information or subjective judgments into our calculation. One of the real time Bayesian analysis simulation techniques, Particle Filter Algorithm, is finally used to simulate the geologic prediction profile for pre-construction and construction phase. Then we use ground class concept to relate the predicted geologic condition with its productivity. A tunnel drainage project at Zhonghe (中和) area – Taiwan is used as a case study.

The tunnel drainage system is an important of modern city and tunnel is one of the civil engineering constructions that carried out under uncertain condition and environment. An encounter of unforeseen ground conditions not only affects our schedule and imposes large extra costs but may also introduce additional hazards. Crucial pre-construction phase decisions and construction phase decision are strongly influenced by expected ground condition. A geologic prediction model to quantify the risk of tunneling and predict the ground condition for un-constructed part of the tunnel using real time Bayesian analysis is proposed. A probabilistic model, discrete state continuous time Markov process, is used to model the geologic condition along the tunnel alignment. A Hidden Markov Model is used to incorporate new information or subjective judgments into our calculation. One of the real time Bayesian analysis simulation techniques, Particle Filter Algorithm, is finally used to simulate the geologic prediction profile for pre-construction and construction phase. Then we use ground class concept to relate the predicted geologic condition with its productivity. A tunnel drainage project at Zhonghe (中和) area – Taiwan is used as a case study.

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