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研究生: 陳俊翰
Jiun-Han Chen
論文名稱: 應用鋼筋價格預測模式擬定採購策略之研究
Evolutionary of Rebar Price Prediction Model For Formulating Purchase Strategy
指導教授: 鄭明淵
Min-Yuan Cheng
口試委員: 郭斯傑
Sy-Jye Guo
吳育偉
Yu-Wei Wu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 96
中文關鍵詞: 鋼筋價格SOS-LSSVM價格預測採購策略
外文關鍵詞: rebar price, SOS-LSSVM, price forecasting, procurement strategy
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  • 鋼筋為營造業最廣泛使用的材料之一,根據行政院公共工程委員會公共工程價格資料庫105年所登載建築工程決標價格資料顯示,SD420鋼筋價格每公噸價格自1月份的20,858元到6月份已降至13,350元,跌幅高達56%,價格波動甚鉅。
    營造廠針對鋼筋採購的決策主要倚靠採購人員的經驗進行,如果認為未來的鋼筋價格將呈現漲價的趨勢,將會進行大量的採購,惟不同採購人員恐有不同的判斷標準,難免發生判斷錯誤的情形。
    有鑑於此,本研究蒐集國內外鋼筋價格預測及採購策略等相關文獻,彙整影響鋼筋價格的因素,並利用生物共生演算法最小平方差支持向量機(SOS-LSSVM)建立鋼筋價格預測模式,再利用價格預測的結果,擬定8種預測態樣及相對應的採購態樣,最後並加入存貨管理的概念,建立一套系統化的鋼筋採購策略,提供營造廠採購人員參考。
    本研究鋼筋價格預測模式預測結果的絕對百分比誤差(Mean Absolute Percent Error, MAPE)值皆小於10%,屬於高精度的預測。研究成果亦顯示,將鋼筋的實際價格以本研究採購態樣進行模擬測試後,可節省3.81%的採購成本,進一步將採購態樣加入滾動管理的概念後,更可節省4.04%的採購成本。


    Rebar is one of the most widely used materials in the construction industry, according to recent data from the Price Data Library of the Public Construction Commission (PCC), we can find from the 105 annual data, SD420 rebar prices in January was 20,858 TWD per ton, until the same year in June has dropped to 13,350 TWD per ton, has dramatically decreased by 56%, the price fluctuations are very large.
    The decision of the construction plant for the purchase of rebars relies mainly on the experience of the procurement personnel. If the price of rebars in the future is expected to show a trend of price increase, a large amount of procurement will be carried out. However, different procurement personnel may have different judgment standards, and it is inevitable that judgment errors will occur. Situation.
    In view of this, this study collects relevant literature on domestic and foreign rebar price forecasting and procurement strategies, gathers factors that influence the price of rebar, and uses the SOS-LSSVM to establish the SD420 rebar price forecasting model. Then use the results of price forecasting to formulate 8 kinds of forecasting situations and corresponding purchasing situations. Finally, add the concept of inventory management, establish a systematic rebar procurement strategy, and provide reference for construction plant procurement personnel.
    The Mean Absolute Percent Error of the forecast results of the rebar price forecasting model in this study is less than 10%, which is a high-precision forecast. The research results also show that after the actual price of the rebar was simulated and tested with the purchasing situations of this research, the purchase cost of 3.81% can be saved, and after further adding the purchase situations to the concept of rolling review, the purchase cost of 4.04% can be saved.

    摘要 I Abstract II 致謝 IV 目錄 VI 圖目錄 VIII 表目錄 X 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究範圍與限制 3 1.4 研究內容與流程 3 第二章 文獻回顧 6 2.1 鋼鐵產業分析 6 2.1.1 上、中與下游產業鏈 6 2.1.2 鋼筋產業現況 7 2.1.3 我國上市鋼鐵類股主要業務分析 7 2.1.4 小結 12 2.2 鋼鐵價格影響因素 12 2.3 存貨管理相關文獻 15 2.4 採購策略相關文獻 16 2.5. 生物共生演算法最小平方差支持向量機(SOS-LSSVM) 18 2.5.1生物共生演算法(SOS) 18 2.5.2生物共生演算法最小平方差支持向量機(SOS-LSSVM) 19 2.6 其他人工智慧 22 2.6.1 支持向量機(SVM) 22 2.6.2 最小平方差支持向量機(LS-SVM) 24 2.6.3 演化式支持向量機(ESIM) 25 2.6.4 演化式最小平差支持向量機(ELSIM) 27 2.6.5 時序性因子及非時序因子綜合性預測模式 (NNLSTM) 29 第三章 鋼筋價格預測模式建立 36 3.1 預測模式建立流程 36 3.2 第一階段因子篩選 38 3.3 第二階段因子篩選 42 3.4 確認輸入變數與輸出變數 47 3.4.1 輸入變數 47 3.4.2 輸出變數 47 3.5 蒐集並建立鋼筋價格資料庫 48 3.5.1 案例蒐集 48 3.5.2 資料處理 49 3.6 建立鋼筋價格預測模式 51 3.6.1 案例正規化 51 3.6.2 依時間序列驗證 52 3.6.3 SOS-LSSVM之應用 53 3.6.4 誤差衡量指標 55 3.7 預測模式結果與比較 57 3.7.1 其他預測模式之比較 57 3.7.2 鋼筋價格預測結果 58 第四章 採購策略與應用 60 4.1鋼筋採購策略 61 4.1.1 名詞定義 61 4.1.2 存貨現況的確認 62 4.1.3 以價格預測結果建立採購態樣 65 4.2模擬案例應用 72 4.2.1 採購策略應用說明 72 4.2.2 一年期案例驗證與檢討 74 第五章 結論與建議 77 5.1 結論 77 5.2 建議 78 參考文獻 79

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