本研究旨在探討政府藉由調漲菸品健康福利捐來引導菸價調漲與菸商過度轉嫁調漲菸價等二事件，分別對(一)香菸總消費需求(二)主要菸商個別菸品消費需求(三)不同品牌(價位)消費需求之影響。
本研究主要發現有：一、菸品健康福利捐調漲並未抑制香菸總消費需求；二、由5家菸商個別角度觀之，菸品健康福利捐調漲並未降低4家進口菸商(JTI、ITG、BAT、PMI)菸品消費需求，惟已微幅抑制TTL公司菸品之消費需求；三、以價格為區隔，在菸品健康福利捐調漲後，所有菸商之中低價位(45~50元)品牌皆呈現成長，其餘同價位但不同品牌菸品則呈現不同反應，並無一致性結果；四、部分菸商過度轉嫁調漲菸價並未大幅降低香菸總消費需求；五、由5家菸商個別角度觀之，3家菸商過度轉嫁後菸品消費有由過度轉嫁之菸商菸品，部分轉移至2家未過度轉嫁菸商之菸品消費之趨勢；六、以價格為區隔，在部分菸商過度轉嫁調漲菸價後，中價位以上價格帶之菸品有往中低價位與低價位菸品消費之趨勢。

The purpose of the study was to examine the impact on the total cigarette consumption, cigarette consumption of major tobacco manufacturers, and cigarette consumption of different brands as a result of the rise of tobacco Surtax, and the result of over-shifting of tobacco manufacturers.
The major findings of the study are as bellows:
1. The rise of tobacco Surtax did not brake the total cigarette consumption.
2. From the individual tobacco manufacturers angles, the increase of tobacco Surtax did not restrain the total cigarette consumption of 4 importing tobacco makers(JTI、ITG、BAT、PMI). On the contrary, the cigarette consumption of TTL was slightly restrained.
3. By comparison of brands with different pricing, after the increase of tobacco Surtax, the sale of all low-medium pricing brands still grew. Yet, there was inconsistent impact on other brands.
4. The increase of cigarette pricing due to the over–shifting of some tobacco manufacturers didn’t lower the total tobacco consumption significantly.
5. From the 5 tobacco manufacturers’ angles, the study found the cigarette consumption of 3 over-shifting tobacco manufactures was rather moved to the others who didn’t over shift the pricing.
6. By comparison of brands with different pricing, after the over–shifting of some tobacco manufacturers, consumers were likely to purchase more low-medium and low pricing brands.

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