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研究生: Satria Arief Wicaksono Bakri
Satria Arief Wicaksono Bakri
論文名稱: Component Failure Pattern Recognition in Notebook Computer by using Hidden Markov Model based on Adaptive Cellular Genetic-Baum Welch Algorithm
Component Failure Pattern Recognition in Notebook Computer by using Hidden Markov Model based on Adaptive Cellular Genetic-Baum Welch Algorithm
指導教授: 歐陽超
Chao Ou-Yang
口試委員: 郭人介
Ren-Jieh Kuo
楊朝龍
Chao-Lung Yang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 91
中文關鍵詞: component failure pattern recognitionhidden Markov modelimbalanced datacellular Genetic Algorithm
外文關鍵詞: component failure pattern recognition, hidden Markov model, imbalanced data, cellular Genetic Algorithm
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  • For notebook computer companies, managing component inventory for repair service centers is vital. While there are many works performed forecast in repair time and repair volume of components, there is a limited number of research performs the pattern recognition for component failure in notebook computers. This work, in the quest of providing valuable inputs for the inventory management practice of repair service center, will focus recognizing the pattern of component failure in notebook computers. Sequential repair history was gathered from a notebook computer repair service center in Taiwan and treated as sets of observations sequences of a hidden Markov model (HMM). Meanwhile, the component failure is treated as the hidden states. The pre-processing of raw data is carried out and revealed an imbalanced HMM structure. To tackle this, a cellular Genetic Algorithm (cGA) with dominance chromosome mechanism is proposed to train the HMM. Furthermore, to enhance the performance of the proposed algorithm, an adaptive feature to switch the dominance chromosome ratio and a feature to re-estimate the fitness value using Baum-Welch Algorithm is proposed. This proposed algorithm is then called Adaptive cGA-BW and, subsequently trained the HMM for 2099 observation sequence instances. A comparative study among conventional algorithm to train the HMM and other variants of cGA is employed. This study shows Adaptive cGA-BW performed significantly better than Baum-Welch Algorithm. This result is verified by Kruskal-Wallis test. To understand the most probable component failure pattern, Viterbi Algorithm based on the HMM trained by Adaptive cGA-BW is implemented. The algorithm decoded the 70% most occurring observation sequences to component failure patterns. These patterns are ranked by their probability of happening.


    For notebook computer companies, managing component inventory for repair service centers is vital. While there are many works performed forecast in repair time and repair volume of components, there is a limited number of research performs the pattern recognition for component failure in notebook computers. This work, in the quest of providing valuable inputs for the inventory management practice of repair service center, will focus recognizing the pattern of component failure in notebook computers. Sequential repair history was gathered from a notebook computer repair service center in Taiwan and treated as sets of observations sequences of a hidden Markov model (HMM). Meanwhile, the component failure is treated as the hidden states. The pre-processing of raw data is carried out and revealed an imbalanced HMM structure. To tackle this, a cellular Genetic Algorithm (cGA) with dominance chromosome mechanism is proposed to train the HMM. Furthermore, to enhance the performance of the proposed algorithm, an adaptive feature to switch the dominance chromosome ratio and a feature to re-estimate the fitness value using Baum-Welch Algorithm is proposed. This proposed algorithm is then called Adaptive cGA-BW and, subsequently trained the HMM for 2099 observation sequence instances. A comparative study among conventional algorithm to train the HMM and other variants of cGA is employed. This study shows Adaptive cGA-BW performed significantly better than Baum-Welch Algorithm. This result is verified by Kruskal-Wallis test. To understand the most probable component failure pattern, Viterbi Algorithm based on the HMM trained by Adaptive cGA-BW is implemented. The algorithm decoded the 70% most occurring observation sequences to component failure patterns. These patterns are ranked by their probability of happening.

    ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF FIGURES v LIST OF TABLES vi GLOSSARRY vii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTIOM 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Problem Statement 5 1.3. Purpose 5 1.4. Scope 5 1.5 Research Structure 5 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 6 2.1. Hidden Markov Model 6 2.1.1 Forward Algorithm 8 2.1.2 Viterbi Algorithm 9 2.1.3 Parameter Training in HMM 10 2.2.3a Baum Welch Algorithm 10 2.2.3b Other Mechanism to Train HMM 11 2.2. Genetic Algorithm 12 2.2.2 Cellular Genetic Algorithm 13 2.2.3 Review on Adaptation Mechanism in GA 14 2.3. Relevant Review on Component Fault Recognition 15 2.3.1 Component Fault Recognition by using Sensors 16 2.3.2 Component Fault Recognition in Electronic-Rich Systems 18 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 20 3.1. Research Framework 20 3.2. Hidden Markov Model in this Research 21 3.3 Data 21 3.3.1. Data Pre-Processing and The Revealed Imbalanced HMM 24 3.4 HMM Parameter Training using Adaptive cGA-BW 29 3.4.1 Determining Preliminary HMM Parameters 31 3.4.2. Optimization Step (Adaptive Cellular Genetic Algorithm) 31 3.4.2a Encoding Mechanism 32 3.4.2b Fitness Evaluation and Constraints 33 3.4.2c Initialization Step 36 3.4.2d Parent Selection 37 3.4.2e Crossover Mechanism 39 3.4.2f Mutation Mechanism 44 3.4.2g Individual Replacement 46 3.4.3 Adaptive Mechanism 47 3.4.4 Re-estimation Step (Baum-Welch Algorithm) 48 3.4.5 Stopping Criterion 51 3.5 Algorithm Performance Test 51 3.6 Component Fault Pattern Recognition 52 CHAPTER 4: RESULT AND ANALYSIS 54 4.1 Data Pre-Processing Result 54 4.1.1 Component-Duty Frequency Preprocessing Result 54 4.1.2 Duty Sequences Pre-processing Result 55 4.2 Deciding Pc, Pm, and Population Size 57 4.3 Experimental Comparison 59 4.4 The Effect of Decentralizing Population, Re-estimation Stage, Dominance of Chromosome States Group and Adaptive Mechanism. 61 4.6 Sensitivity Analysis 66 4.7 Component Failure Pattern Recognition 70 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 74 5.1 Conclusion 74 5.2 Recommendation for Future Research 75 REFERENCE 76

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