研究生: |
李展宇 Chan-Yu Li |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
灰色預測應用於即時性住宅能源管理之研究 Study on Real-Time Residential Energy Management by using Grey Forecast |
指導教授: |
吳瑞南
Ruay-Nan Wu |
口試委員: |
張宏展
Hong-Chan Chang 郭政謙 Cheng-Chien Kuo 謝宗煌 Tsung-Huang Hsieh |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
電資學院 - 電機工程系 Department of Electrical Engineering |
論文出版年: | 2015 |
畢業學年度: | 103 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 74 |
中文關鍵詞: | 需求面管理 、迴歸分析法 、灰色理論 、家庭能源管理系統 |
外文關鍵詞: | Demand Side Management, Regression Analysis, Grey Theory, Home Energy Management System |
相關次數: | 點閱:343 下載:4 |
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近年來隨環保議題的崛起以及核能事件隱憂讓人們越來越重視能源等相關問題,以台灣而言,由於龍門核能發電廠的停建,以及隨著舊有的核能機組除役,台電統計在105年7月之備轉容量率將會降至3%,即可能在災害發生或尖峰需求量大增時,實施大區域的限電,對電力系統品質造成影響。根據台電104年永續發展報告書指出,台灣的民生用電已經佔比20.2%,若使民生用電的尖峰負載下降,則可提高備轉容量,因此本研究模擬建置一個住宅用之能源管理系統,透過能源管理系統來有效的達成需求面之管理。
本研究處理需求面管理的方法將使用削峰填谷法,此方法是以儲能系統為基礎,其優點可以在不影響使用者日常負載使用特性之下,進行有效的負載轉移,將尖峰所使用的電量以蓄電池供應,而為保持續電池壽命將使用二次規畫法進行儲蓄電池的充/放電量排程最佳化,然而因考慮實際負載與預測負載之間的落差,本研究利用迴歸分析以及灰色理論系統進行即時性的調整,使系統維持在較高負載因數。透過本研究可改善我國需求面管理之策略,將負載因數作為參考指標,設立新的電費優惠機制,讓使用者與電力業者達成利益上之平衡。
In recent years with the raise of environmental issues and the worry of nuclear events, people get more and more attention to energy and other related issues. In Taiwan, due to the cessation of Long-Meng nuclear power plant and the decommission of old nuclear units, Taipower statistics the operating reserve ratio will be reduced to 3% in 2016. When confronted with the disaster or spike increased demand, it may happen in implementation the large area electric power rationing. It will impact on the quality of the power system. According to Taipower 2015 sustainable development report points out that the livelihood of electricity have accounted for 20.2 percent in Taiwan. So if the livelihood of electricity peak load get lower, the operating reserve can be increased. This study simulated on building a residential energy management system. Through the energy management system to effectively achieve the manage of demand side.
The study process the demand side management will use the Peak Shifting method. This method is based on the construction of the energy storage system. The advantages of this mathod can effectively transfer the load peak to the load valley with out affect the user's load properties. Use the electric of the battery to supply the load peak. In order to protect the battery life, this study used Sequential Quadratic Programming(SQP) mathod to schedule the optimization of battery's charge/discharge capacity. And in consideration of the error between the actual load and the load forecast. And in consideration of the error between the actual load and the load forecast, this study used regression analysis and gray theoretical system on real-time adjustments. Makes the system at a higher load factor. Through this study can improve the electric policies of our country. Use the load factor as a reference to establishment a new mechanism of tariff concessions. Allow users and Taipower to achieve a balance of benefits.
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