本研究主旨在對美國行動電視產業現況進行了解，並試圖藉由情境分析法(Scenario Analysis)提供一個關於行動電視產業未來發展之可能情境。目前美國行動電視正處於成長的階段，不同的技術標準各擁市場相互競爭，在資源有限的條件下，不論是市場行銷人員或是研發人員，都會面臨如何抉擇的問題。
為避免任何重要、極端情形被忽略，研究方法上，本研究透過文獻探討、專家問卷及層級分析法，建構美國行動電視產業發展驅動力量因素及其重要程度，藉以發展出該產業未來之可能情境組合，再經由產、官、學界的專家深度訪談及情境分析，尋找關於產業發展的重要不確定性因素及其對產業可能的影響，並輔以建構產業未來發展的可能情境。
本研究發現，影響美國行動電視產業發展的重要不確定性因素包括：1.行動電視市場需求的不確定性；2.經濟情勢與成長的不確定性。3.替代性技術產品的不確定性。並依需求變化、技術變化以及產業環境(結構)變化三個不確定軸面，分別建立了市場激烈競爭、技術快速替換、及合作共榮三種未來可能的產業情境。
在論文最後，本研究除了分別針對各個情境分析，並彙整、歸納相關受訪者之意見，經由產業分析及預測方法對我國業者提出具體可行之策略發展建議，包括： 1.籌組研發聯盟，開發技術平台；2.在產業價值鏈中尋找定位。

The purpose of this research is on mobile TV industry on the status of U.S. marketing, via fundamental understand and scenarios tend analysis to provide a mobile TV industry on the most possible scenarios looks like for its future development.Mobile TV in the U.S. is in growth stage, different technical standards of the owner market competition, under conditions of limited resources, whether marketing or research and development staffs will of course face the problem is how to judge choose.
To be avoid any major, or extreme cases ignored without well concern, research methods of this research through literature review, questionnaire and AHP to construct the U.S. mobile TV industry and the importance of factors driving force. Depend on above conclusion to develop the possible scenarios for the future industry combination, and then by industry, government, academia and scenario analysis, expert interviews, looking for industrial development on the key uncertainty factors and the possible impact on the industry, supplemented by construction of possible scenarios for the future development of industry.This research indicated that U.S. mobile TV industry the key uncertainty factors include:
1. Mobile TV market demand variation uncertain.
2. The economic situation and growing trend uncertainty.
3. Substitute via technology products of uncertainty
Rather then mentioned, with three uncertain axes by changes in demand, changes in technological and the industry structural changes, respectively, established a market slowdown, technology evolution delay, free and competitive market and oligopoly of four possible future situation of the industrial situation.
In thesis of the end, this research study may not only in Taiwan, but, respectively, for each situation faced from the industry opportunities and threats of and compiled, summarized the views of the relevant respondents through situational analysis of the industry on the strategic development of concrete practical recommendations, including :
1. Form a research alliance to develop technology platforms.
2. To find value chain positioning in the industry.

中文部份
[1]鄧振源、曾國雄，「層級分析法（AHP）的內涵特性與應用（上）、（下）」，中國統計學報，第27卷第6、7期，頁5-22。
[2]陳建男（民92），「產業情境分析與策略發展關係之研究—以TFT-LCD 產業為例」，中原大學組織管理學研究所論文。
[3]張乘維（民98），「美國行動電視ATSC-M_H發展趨勢分析」，拓墣產業研究所產業分析報告。
[4]張瑞祺(民96)，「WiMAX 產業情境分析與廠商策略之研究」，逢甲大學企業管理學系研究所，碩士論文。
[5]李俊 (民98)，「行動電視規範架構與營運模式之研究」，國立政治大學碩士論文
[6]蔡榮釧(民95)，「行動電視之技術與營運模式研究」，國立台灣大學商學研究所學碩士論文。
[7]袁建中•謝志宏•彭弼聲等 譯(民95)，產業分析之技術預測方法與實例 ( Martino：Technological Forecasting for Decision Marking 3/E)
[8]余序江、許志義、陳澤義(民97)，科技管理導論：科技預測與規劃，五南圖書出版有限公司。
[9]翁景民譯(民89)，David Aaker 著，策略行銷管理，華泰。
[10]吳顯東(民95)，洞見脈絡-技術預測輕鬆上手－產業顧問學院叢書系列，資策會產業情報研究所。

英文部份
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