自駕車發展近年受到關注，產業發展快速，浪潮不僅涉及汽車產業，也涉及包括開發人工智能的軟體公司、車用感測器的供應商和電信商等相關科技企業，該些科技企業若無法掌握技術發展趨勢，便可能落後於其他競爭對手，導致其被市場淘汰。

然而，沒有技術發明會隨機出現，科技必定會循著一定的趨勢發展，因此，只要善加分析那些記錄了科技研發成果的過往文獻，便可由已知推斷未知，利用過往的資料預測該技術的未來發展。

本研究的目的在於了解自駕車產業的相關技術，以「專利文獻」和「學術論文」二種資料為基礎，搭配技術預測理論模型，預測自駕車技術生命週期的發展趨勢，並將論文和專利二者數據交互比對分析，得出較完整的預測結果。

根據本研究對專利文獻或學術論文的檢索結果，自駕車領域的技術發展趨勢具有較高的連續性，且已累積相當之技術功效，故本研究選擇套用趨勢分析法當中的「成長曲線」模型預測自駕車技術的技術生命週期。而根據本研究技術生命週期之預測結果，無論是基於專利文獻或學術論文，均顯示出自駕車技術已於2019年進入發展成熟期，而該領域的關鍵技術都已經研發完成。根據本研究繪製之預測圖形研判，基於學術論文的技術生命週期曲線相較基於專利資訊所繪製的曲線平坦，表示學術研究領域的成長時間較長，其相比於專利研發會較早進入成長期，但也會較晚進入飽和期。

The development of autonomous vehicle has received a lot of attention in recent years, and the development of the industry is also very fast, and it is not only involving the automobile industry but also the technology companies of artificial intelligence, automotive sensors or telecommunications. If those technology companies are not able to understand the technology trends, they may fall behind other competitors and be eliminated from the market.

However, there is no technology invention that was invented randomly. Technology will definitely develop according to a certain trend. Therefore, as long as the past documents that record the achievements of research and development are well analyzed, the unknown can be inferred from the known, and the future development of the specific technology can be predicted based on its past data.

This research aimed to understand the technologies of the autonomous vehicle industry, analyzing two kinds of documents, " patent documents" and "academic papers", and using technology forecasting model to predict the development trend of the technology life cycle of autonomous vehicle, and comparing academic papers and patent documents interactively to come up with a more complete forecasting result.

According to the search results of patent documents or academic papers in this study, the technological development trend in the field of autonomous vehicle was continuous and had accumulated considerable technical effects. Therefore, this study chose to apply the growth curve model of the trend analysis method to predict the technology life cycle of autonomous vehicle technology. And according to the prediction results of the technology life cycle of this research, whether based on patent documents or academic papers, it shows that autonomous vehicle technology has entered a mature stage of development in 2019, and the key technologies in this field have been developed. Inferring from the forecast graph drawn in this study, the technology life cycle curve based on academic papers is flatter than the curve based on patent information, indicating that the academic research field has a longer growth time and will enter growth earlier than patent R&D. period, but will also enter the saturation period later.

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