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研究生： 邱全宏
Chuan-Hung Chiu
論文名稱： 貝式年齡置換策略及新的置換策略
The age replacement policy via the Bayesian method and new replacement policies
指導教授： 許總欣
Tsung-Shin Hsu
口試委員: 林義貴
Yi-Kuei Lin
王福琨
Fu-Kwun Wang
徐世輝
Shey-Huei Sheu
巫木誠
Muh-Cherng Wu
王國雄
Kuo-Hsiung Wang
學位類別： 博士
Doctor
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年： 2010
畢業學年度： 98
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 74
中文關鍵詞： 最小修理 、年齡置換策略 、貝式方法 、型一置換策略 、型二置換策略 、共置換策略 、幾何過程 、非同質普瓦松過程 、安全限制 、可維修之嚴重損害 、長期平均成本.
外文關鍵詞： Minimal Repair., Age Replacement Policy, Bayesian Method, Type І Replacement Policy, Type ІІ Replacement Policy, Co-policy, Geometric process, Non-homogeneous Poisson process, Safety constraint, Repairable catastrophic failure, Long-run average cost per unit time
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    • 在可靠度的研究中，決定最佳的置換策略是相當地重要。由於置換策略的資料並不多，所以我們考慮貝式方法去估計我們的未知參數。並且提出新的置換策略，如型一、型二與共置換策略。我們的目標是決定最佳的置換策略並使長期平均成本達到最小。
    在第二章，我們考慮韋伯分佈的參數是已知的。並考慮較為嚴重的損壞發生時，維修人員是有機會將其損壞維修好的。但是樣本資料並不多，所以我們考慮以貝式方法來估計為之參數。在第三章，我們則釋考慮將系統加上一個安全的限制。此措施可以使我們遠離一些嚴重的損壞但是我們卻必須付出相當的成本去維護系統。我們則是提出比較複雜的置換策略，並利用數質分析去驗證我們的模型。

    It is important to determine the optimal replacement policy in reliability study. Because the sample size is relatively small under the replacement policy, we use a Bayesian approach to estimate unknown parameters. We also propose some new replacement policies to develop a replacement model. Our policies are named type І replacement policy, type ІІ replacement policy, and the co-policy, respectively. Our subjective is to determine an optimal replacement policy in which the long-run average cost per unit time is minimized.

    目錄: 論文摘要 I ABSTRACT II 誌謝 III 目錄: IV LIST OF FIGURES VI LIST OF TABLES VII LIST OF NOTATIONS VIII CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 BACKGROUND 1 1.2 LITERATURE REVIEW 2 1.3 ORGANIZATION 6 CHAPTER 2 AN AGE REPLACEMENT POLICY VIA THE BAYESIAN METHOD 7 2.1 INTRODUCTION 7 2.2 AN AGE-DEPENDENT POLICY WITH MINIMAL REPAIR 7 2.3 THE BAYESIAN APPROACH 12 2.4 SPECIAL CASES 16 2.5 NUMERICAL EXAMPLES 17 CHAPTER 3 AN AGE REPLACEMENT POLICY WITH A SAFETY CONSTRAINT VIA THE BAYESIAN METHOD 22 3.1 INTRODUCTION 22 3.2 AN AGE REPLACEMENT POLICY WITH A SAFETY CONSTRAINT 22 3.3 THE BAYESIAN METHOD 27 3.4 NUMERICAL EXAMPLE 29 CHAPTER 4 NEW REPLACEMENT POLICIES FORMULATED USING A GEOMETRIC PROCESS 31 4.1 INTRODUCTION 31 4.2 THE MODEL 32 4.3 LONG-RUN AVERAGE COST PER UNIT TIME UNDER OUR POLICIES 33 4.3.1 Long-run average cost per unit time under type І replacement policy (T, K, N) 34 4.3.2 Long-run average cost per unit time under type ІІ replacement policy (N, T1, T2) 37 4.3.3 Long-run average cost per unit time under the co-policy (p, K, N, T1, T2) 41 4.4 EXAMPLE 43 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS 47 REFERENCES 49 作者簡介 58

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