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研究生: 葉心倩
Hsin-Chien Yeh
論文名稱: 群眾募資的關鍵成功因素 — 以中國追夢網為例
Key Success Factors of Crowdfunding Campaign — Evidence from China Dreamore
指導教授: 林孟彥
Meng-Yan Lin
葉穎蓉
Ying-Rong Yeh
口試委員: 蔡瑤昇
Yao-Sheng Tsai
呂文琴
Wen-Chin Lu
葉穎蓉
Ying-Rong Yeh
林孟彥
Meng-Yan Lin
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 企業管理系
Department of Business Administration
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 23
中文關鍵詞: 群眾募資點二系列相關係數隨機森林文本採礦
外文關鍵詞: Crowdfunding, Point-biserial Correlation Coefficient, Random Forest, Text Mining
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  • 金融海嘯後銀行業採緊縮放款政策,導致中小企業借款困難,當時險峻的籌資環境,造就群眾募資平台發芽基礎,群眾募資成為一種新型態的籌措資金管道。本研究的目的是探討影響募資的關鍵成功因素,以「中國群眾募資平台-追夢網活動類」募資案為研究樣本,追夢網在2015年3月關閉網站平台營運,移轉至行動裝置端,本研究蒐集2011年9月至2018年2月移轉前後募資案。
    本研究的主要發現如下,首先,平台移轉後募資案成功機率大幅上升。次之,利用隨機森林演算法分析,得到不同平台影響成功機率的募資變數並不相同。接著,在網站募資案中發現,照片數增加會提升募資成功率,但若加入考慮目標金額因素,高目標金額反而會降低募資成功率;在行動裝置群眾留言數的分析發現,留言數較少的募資案,成功率反而比較高。最後,將募資案文案內容的斷詞結果以四象限結合泡泡圖呈現,可清楚觀察到某些特定屬性之募資案失敗率極高,故提案者應考量募資案屬性,慎選募資平台。


    After the financial crisis, the banking industry tight monetary policy, which made it difficult for small and medium enterprises to lend money. At that time, the precipitous financing environment created the basis for crowdfunding platforms. Therefore, this study provides the factors that influence the success of the crowdfunding campaign. The research sample campaigns from China’s Crowdfunding Platform – Dreamore. The Dreamore closed its website platform operation in March 2015, transfer to the portable device. This study collects crowdfunding campaigns from September 2011 to February 2018 before and after the transfer.
    The following are the main findings from the result of the analysis. First, the success rate of crowdfunding has greatly increased after the transfer. Second, using the random forest model finds that different crowdfunding platforms that affect the success rate of different factors of crowdfunding. On the website crowdfunding campaigns, it is found that the increasing number of photos will increase the success rates, but if consider the goal factor, the higher goal will decrease the success rate of crowdfunding. The analysis of the number of messages on the portable devices finds that success rate of crowdfunding with few message counts is rather high. Finally, the results from the text mining bubble diagram to make the study easier to understand. From the diagram, it observed that the failure rate of the crowdfunding campaign for certain specific attributes is extremely high. Therefore, the proposer should consider campaign attributes, carefully select the crowdfunding platform.

    摘要 I Abstract I 謝詞 II 目錄 III 圖目錄 IV 表目錄 V 1. 緒論 1 2. 文獻回顧 2 2.1. 群眾募資 2 2.2. 群眾募資的關鍵成功因素 3 3. 研究方法 4 3.1. 研究樣本 4 3.2. 隨機森林 5 3.3. 文本採礦 5 4. 研究結果 5 4.1. 相關係數判斷 6 4.2. 重要度指標分析 7 4.3. 四象限定位分析 9 4.4. 關鍵詞結果 11 4.4.1. 網站募資案之關鍵詞分析 11 4.4.2. 行動裝置募資案之關鍵詞分析 13 5. 結論與建議 15 5.1. 結論 15 5.2. 貢獻 16 5.3. 研究限制與建議 17 References 18 附錄 20 5.4. 附錄一 隨機森林R語言指令 20 5.5. 附錄二 斷詞與詞頻計算R語言指令 21 5.6. 附錄三 網站募資案詞頻統計 22 5.7. 附錄四 行動裝置募資案詞頻統計 23

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