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研究生: 莫鳳圓
FENG-YUAN MOH
論文名稱: 關於金融危機文獻與兩岸銀行業風險管理之研究
Three Essays on Financial Crisis Research and Risk Management in Cross-Strait Banking Industry
指導教授: 盧希鵬
Hsi-Peng Lu
林丙輝
Bing-Huei Lin
口試委員: 劉代洋
Day-Yang Liu
張琬喻
Woan-Yuh Jang
梁瓊如
Chiung-Ju Liang
沈大白
Da-Bai Shen
楊聲勇
Seng-Yung Yang
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 77
中文關鍵詞: 金融危機風險管理社會科學引用文獻索引衍生性金融商品風險溢酬套利訂價理論
外文關鍵詞: financial crisis, risk management, Social Science Citation Index (SSCI), financial derivatives, risk premium, arbitrage pricing theory
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  • 自1990年代以來,國際間陸續發生多起重大金融危機,不僅造成國際金融市場動盪不安,更使總體經濟嚴重受創。2008年9月全球金融危機更突顯金融穩定、貨幣穩定及銀行健全的重要性。本論文藉由以下三篇研究,期為預防金融危機及維護金融穩定貢獻一份心力。
    第一篇論文根據1990年至2008年間發表在社會科學引用文獻索引(SSCI) 期刊的文獻,評估對金融危機研究的貢獻。本文嘗試調查:(1)最近金融危機研究的主要議題;(2)發表金融危機研究的主要期刊;(3)利用整體貢獻法及積分貢獻法評估個人及機構對金融危機文獻之貢獻;及(4)利用引文分析法評估個別文章及個人研究者對金融危機文獻之影響。研究結果提供評估個人及機構研究產量的一個基準,並辨識未來研究方向及發表場所。
    第二篇論文調查衍生性金融商品使用銀行與未使用銀行財務特徵的主要差異,以及調查使用衍生性金融商品與財務特徵間之關係,利用1998年3月至2009年3月本國銀行的季資料。研究結果顯示使用銀行,與未使用銀行相較,資產規模較大、資產品質較佳、資產報酬率較高、利率及信用風險較低、匯率曝險較高及放款成長率較高。再者,利用tobit 迴歸,研究發現衍生性金融商品的使用程度與資產規模、資產品質、淨利息邊際率、匯率風險呈正相關;但與信用風險及持有流動性資產的比率呈負相關。為加強解釋力,本文呈現三個迴歸模型:總衍生性金融商品、利率衍生性金融商品及匯率衍生性金融商品。
    第三篇論文估計中國及臺灣金融機構的股票報酬對市場、利率及匯率風險的敏感度,以及調查在套利訂價理論架構下這些風險的溢酬。本研究採用近似無相關迴歸(Seemingly Unrelated Regression),使用2005年7月21日至2009年12月31日之日資料。研究發現中國銀行組的市場風險β係數顯著為正,利率風險β係數顯著為負;臺灣銀行組及臺灣金融控股公司組的市場風險β係數及匯率風險β係數顯著為正。再者,研究結果顯示中國的銀行、臺灣的銀行及金融控股公司的市場風險溢酬及利率風險溢酬均不顯著;中國的銀行匯率風險溢酬顯著為正,但臺灣的銀行及金融控股公司匯率風險溢酬均不顯著。
    最後,本論文針對三篇研究結果,提出對監理機關、業界及學界之意涵及未來研究方向之建議。


    Since the 1990s, several financial crises around the world have disturbed international financial markets and damaged the global economy. The global financial crisis of September 2008 highlighted the importance of financial stability, financial soundness, and currency stability. To prevent financial crisis and safeguard financial stability are the common goals among central banks and competent authorities. This dissertation contributes to the literature in these areas with three studies.
    The first essay assesses contributions to financial crisis research, based on the publications in Social Science Citation Index journals from 1990 to 2008. This study represents an attempt to: (1) investigate the primary issues of recent financial crisis research, (2) investigate the major journals in publishing financial crisis research, (3) assess the contributions of individual researchers and institutions using the credited contribution approach, and (4) measure the impact of individual publications and individual researchers on the financial crisis literature through citation analysis. The findings provide a useful benchmark for assessing individual and institutional research productivity, and trends for future research and venues for publications are identified.
    The second essay examines the financial characteristics of banks that use derivatives and those that do not, as well as the relationship between the use of derivatives and financial characteristics using quarterly data from all domestic banks from March 1998 to March 2009. The results show that user banks, compared to nonuser banks, are on average larger and have stronger asset quality, higher returns on assets, lower interest rate and credit risks, higher foreign exchange exposure, and higher loan growth rates. Moreover, the results of tobit regression indicate that the intensity of derivatives use is positively related to asset size, asset quality, net interest margins, and foreign exchange exposure, but negatively related to credit risk and liquid asset holdings. To maintain robustness, this study presents three separate regression models: total derivatives, interest rate derivatives, and foreign exchange derivatives.
    The third essay estimates the sensitivity of stock returns to market, interest and exchange rate risks of the Chinese and Taiwanese financial institutions, and it also examines the pricing of these risk factors in the framework of Ross’ (1976) arbitrage pricing theory. The two-step estimation procedure adopts a seemingly unrelated regression method using daily data for the period from 21 July 2005 to 31 December 2009. The results for the Chinese bank group indicate that the market risk beta is significantly positive, while the interest rate risk beta is significantly negative. The results also show that the market risk betas and the exchange rate risk betas are significantly positive for both the Taiwanese bank group and the Financial Holding Company (FHC) group. In addition, the market risk premium and interest rate risk premium are insignificant for Chinese banks, Taiwanese banks and FHCs. Nevertheless, the exchange risk premium is significantly positive for Chinese banks, but is insignificant for Taiwanese banks and FHCs.
    Finally, the implications of these findings for regulators, industrialists and academicians are provided in this dissertation.

    中文摘要 I Abstract III 誌 謝 V Table of Contents VI List of Figures VII List of Tables VIII 1. Introduction 1 2. Contributions to Financial Crisis Research: An Assessment of the Literature in Social Science Citation Index Journals from 1990 to 2008 4 2.1 Introduction 4 2.2 Literature Selection 6 2.3 Literature Analysis Methods 9 2.4 Research Results 12 2.5 Discussion and Conclusions 27 3. The Determinants of the Use of Derivatives: Evidence from Taiwanese Banks 30 3.1 Introduction 30 3.2 Literature Review and Hypotheses 33 3.3 Empirical Methodology 37 3.4 Empirical Results 42 3.5 Discussion and Conclusions 48 4. The Sensitivity of Stock Returns to Market, Interest and Exchange Rate Risks: Evidence from Chinese and Taiwanese Financial Institutions 50 4.1 Introduction 50 4.2 Theoretical Framework 52 4.3 Methodology and Data 53 4.4 Estimation Results 57 4.5 Conclusion 64 5. Conclusion 66 References 69 作者簡介 78

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