血液的供需管理是當代醫療體系的重要研究議題，由於血液的供給和需求較日常商品不規則且隨機，若存貨管理不當，可能因採血數量與庫存數量不足或過剩而造成極大的社會成本。在血液產品中，血小板(platelet)的保存期僅短短五日，大幅提升管理決策的複雜度，因此如何有效管理血小板之供需，至今仍為學者持續探討的問題。
本研究期望建構出精準的分離術血小板需求模型以及訂定最佳的採血目標量，提供未來血小板於管理上可行之決策建議。研究中採用時間序列模型之季節性自我迴歸移動平均整合模型（seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, SARIMA）進行需求預測，並透過啟發式模型及線性規劃模型分析在不同供應條件下，過期與短缺的變化。分析所得之分離術血小板採血目標，可提高捐血中心在採血及供血管理上的效率，並降低因血液短缺和過期浪費而造成之成本。

Blood supply and demand management is an important research issue in contemporary health care system. Because the supply and demand of blood are more stochastic and irregular than those of the ordinary commodities and because the blood products are perishable, managing blood supply chain to match supply and demand becomes a challenging task. If the inventory management isn’t appropriate, it would result in the shortage or wastage of blood products and lead to higher social cost. The shelf life of platelets is only five days, which is much shorter compared to other blood products. While solving the platelet collecting and inventory problem is an important decision problem, substantially fewer papers about blood platelets have been published due to the complexity in its nature.
This research aims to develop a more precise demand model of Apheresis platelet and determine the best target amount of Apheresis platelet collection to provide policy recommendations on the future management of platelets. In the study, seasonal self-regressive moving average integration model (SARIMA) were used to forecast the daily demand of platelets. A heuristic model and a linear programming model were then formulated to solve for the optimal daily target collection volume that minimizes the total social costs. The target collection volume for blood platelet can be easily implemented for the practical situations to enhance the management efficiency of blood collecting and supplying at the blood center, and to decrease the cost of the expired blood wastage and blood shortage.

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網路文獻
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